[RSM] W3LPL prop forecast 2023 Jan 23

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2023 01:44:38 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through mid-day
Tuesday possibly degrading to mildly depressed conditions on high and
mid-latitude paths late Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through mid-day
Tuesday with a chance of mildly depressed conditions late Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal through mid-day Tuesday with possible mildly depressed
conditions late Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 199 and is likely to remain about the
same through at least Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one very large,
four medium and four tiny active regions containing 76 sunspots with a
total sunspot area of 1250 micro-hemispheres (about six times the surface
area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal early Tuesday with possible mildly
depressed conditions late Tuesday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through
Tuesday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America to east and
southeast Asia after about 2145Z is likely to be normal on Monday and
mildly degraded on Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through mid-day Tuesday with possible mildly depressed
conditions late Tuesday. 30 meter long path propagation from North America
to east and southeast Asia after about 2145Z likely to be normal on Monday
and mildly degraded on Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon by E-region
blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through mid-day Tuesday
with possible mildly depressed conditions late Tuesday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal through mid-day Tuesday with possible mildly depressed conditions
late Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through mid-day Tuesday with possible mildly depressed conditions late
Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through mid-day Tuesday with possible mildly depressed conditions late
Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to east
Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday. 12
and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is
likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index is about 120 or higher and
geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less).

6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation is not likely through at least
Tuesday because of depressed F2 MUFs due to reduced ionizing solar flux.
There is a slight chance of trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) and
oblique TEP from the southern tier of U.S. states mostly to equatorial
Africa and CQ Zone 32 through at least Tuesday during mid-afternoon and
early evening at the path mid-point. There is possibility of TEP from the
southern tier of U.S. states to South America and a chance that stations at
mid-latitudes may briefly couple into both TEP and oblique TEP via possible
intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E propagation. See K6MIO’s excellent
article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and sporadic-E-to-TEP
mid-latitude propagation beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably
when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF
field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours
or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME (faster
than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden
bursts of X-ray radiation from M-class solar flares are likely through
Tuesday with a slight chance of isolated strong X-class flares due to
several active regions on the visible disk capable of producing moderate to
strong flares.

Solar wind parameters are likely to be mildly enhanced through mid-day
Tuesday with possible increasingly enhanced solar wind late Tuesday due to
coronal hole high speed stream effects and possible CME influence.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet to unsettled through mid-day
Tuesday with possible active intervals and a slight chance of isolated
minor geomagnetic storms late Tuesday due to coronal hole high speed stream
effects and possible mild CME influence.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 29 minutes later and day length
is 31 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be