[RSM] W3LPL forecast thru Wednesday, July 12

Tue Jul 11 09:22:39 EDT 2023

From: Frank Donovan <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 11 Jul 2023 02:14:39 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be above normal through midday
Wednesday then mostly normal through late Wednesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve
other online sources (the URLs are included this forecast) is published
five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast
are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be above normal
through midday Wednesday then mostly normal through late Wednesday.
Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
above normal through midday Wednesday then mostly normal through late
Wednesday.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every
hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at
https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html   prop.kc2g.com
<http://www.prop.kc2g.com/> provides near-real time maps and data about
ionospheric conditions.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is nine minutes later and sunset
is three minutes earlier than it was on June 21st. Sunrise is about two
hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of
the F2 region than it is at ground level. The sun never sets today on the
F2 region north of 45 degrees north latitude.

Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is 201 and is likely to
remain about the same through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has one
very large, one large, five medium and four tiny active regions containing
71 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1290 micro-hemispheres (about
seven times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by
M-class solar flares through Wednesday and a very slight chance of strong
daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Wednesday.

The solar wind is likely to remain at background levels of about 350
km/second or less through midday Wednesday, increasing to mildly elevated
levels of about 400 km/second by late Wednesday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to remain quiet through midday Wednesday
degrading to unsettled to active with a slight chance of an isolated minor
geomagnetic storm through late Wednesday due to weak CME effects.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
South Pacific is likely to be normal through late Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after
0000Z is likely to be above normal through early Wednesday then mostly
normal through late Wednesday. Short path propagation from North America to
east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be above normal through Wednesday.
30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be above normal through midday Wednesday then mostly normal through late
Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded
within a few hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance
low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be above normal through midday Wednesday
then mostly normal through late Wednesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be above normal
through midday Wednesday then mostly normal through late Wednesday. 20
meter long distance propagation at low and mid latitudes in the northern
hemisphere is usually degraded from a few hours after sunrise until a few
hours before sunset from June through August by E region and sporadic-E
blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be above normal
through midday Wednesday then mostly normal through late Wednesday. 17 and
15 meter long path propagation from North America to east Asia from about
1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be above normal
through midday Wednesday then mostly normal through late Wednesday. 12 and
10 meter long distance propagation crossing the north Atlantic and north
Pacific is degraded by seasonally lower daytime MUFs due to reduced daytime
free electron density in the F2 region through late September. 12 and 10
meter long path propagation from North America to western Australia from
about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation up to 10,000 km occasionally
occurs in the northern hemisphere from early morning through late evening
hours through at least mid-July, but its duration and geographic extent is
both sporadic and unpredictable. See K6MIO’s excellent article about 6
meter long distance sporadic-E:
www.qsl.net/wa3mej/Articles/Propagation/6M%20Prop/K6MIO/Extreme%20Range%2050-MHz%20Es-%20East%E2%80%93West%20(EWEE).pdf

There is a very slight chance through Wednesday of brief 6 meter F2
trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to
South America and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7) from early afternoon
through late evening. There is a very slight chance through Wednesday of
brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly
from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa during
mid-afternoon.  There is a very slight chance through Wednesday of brief
isolated oblique-TEP to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during late afternoon
and early evening through Wednesday. There is a very slight chance that
stations in the lower 48 U.S. states may briefly couple into TEP and
oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E
propagation. TEP may be enhanced during the onset of strong to severe solar
flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial
enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP,
TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9
at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably
when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF
field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more
coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind
exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength,
solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and
2300Z at
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three
hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated
daily at 1230Z at
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/data/ClassicalRWCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z
and 1230Z at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated
daily at 2330Z at https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

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