[RSM] W3LPL forecast thru Tuesday, July 18

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2023 02:17:58 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with mild to
moderate degradations at mid to high latitudes from midday Monday through
midday Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve
other online sources (the URLs are included this forecast) is published
five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast
are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Tuesday.
  Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with
possible mild degradations from midday Monday through midday Tuesday.
Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with likely moderate degradations from midday Monday through
midday Tuesday.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every
hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at
https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html  Near-real time maps and data about
ionospheric conditions are available at prop.kc2g.com
<http://www.prop.kc2g.com/>

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 13 minutes later and sunset is
six minutes earlier than it was on June 21st. Sunrise is about two hours
earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the
F2 region than it is at ground level. The sun never sets today on the F2
region north of 45 degrees north latitude.

Sunday’s Estimated International Sunspot Number was 162 and is likely to
remain about the same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has two very
large, one large and two tiny active regions containing 49 sunspots with a
total sunspot area of 1700 micro-hemispheres (about nine times the surface
area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares
are likely through Tuesday. There is a slight chance of strong daytime
radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Tuesday.

The solar wind is likely to remain enhanced at about 475 km/second through
midday Monday, increasing to moderately elevated levels of more than 500
km/second through midday Tuesday due to effects of multipole CMEs then
gradually improving to less than 500 km/second by midday Tuesday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet through midday Monday,
degrading to unsettled to active with possible minor to moderate
geomagnetic storm activity from late Monday through early Tuesday due to
the effects of multiple CMEs, then gradually improving to quiet to
unsettled by midday Tuesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after
0000Z is likely to be moderately degraded on early Tuesday due to the
effects of multiple CMEs. Short path propagation from North America to east
Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday with likely
moderate degradations on Tuesday.
30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with mild to moderate degradations from midday Monday
through midday Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately
degraded within a few hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long
distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with mild to moderate
degradations from midday Monday through midday Tuesday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal with mild to moderate degradations from midday Monday through midday
Tuesday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low and mid latitudes in the
northern hemisphere is usually degraded from a few hours before noon until
a few hours after noon through late August by E region and sporadic-E
blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with mild to moderate degradations from midday Monday through midday
Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to east
Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday with
possible mild to moderate degradation on Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with mild to moderate degradations from midday Monday through midday
Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long distance propagation crossing the north
Atlantic and north Pacific is degraded by seasonally lower daytime MUFs due
to reduced daytime free electron density in the F2 region through late
September. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
western Australia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be is likely to be
mostly normal on Monday with possible mild to moderate degradation on
Tuesday.

6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation up to 10,000 km occasionally
occurs in the northern hemisphere from early morning through late evening
hours but its duration and geographic extent are much more sporadic and
unpredictable since mid-July. See K6MIO’s excellent article about 6 meter
long distance sporadic-E:
www.qsl.net/wa3mej/Articles/Propagation/6M%20Prop/K6MIO/Extreme%20Range%2050-MHz%20Es-%20East%E2%80%93West%20(EWEE).pdf

There is a very slight chance through Tuesday of brief 6 meter F2
trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to
South America and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7) from early afternoon
through late evening. There is a very slight chance through Tuesday of
brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly
from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa during
mid-afternoon.  There is a very slight chance through Tuesday of brief
isolated oblique-TEP to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during late afternoon
and early evening through Tuesday. There is a very slight chance that
stations in the lower 48 U.S. states may briefly couple into TEP and
oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E
propagation. TEP may be enhanced during the onset of strong to severe solar
flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial
enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP,
TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9
at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours
or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind
exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength,
solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and
2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three
hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated
daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/data/ClassicalRWCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z
and 1230Z at: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated
daily at 2330Z at: https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net