[RSM] W3LPL forecast thru Tuesday, July 25

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2023 02:18:00 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible
mild degradation of propagation crossing the auroral ovals during local
nighttime hours from late Monday through early Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve
other online sources (the URLs included in this forecast) is published five
days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are
in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through
Tuesday.   Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation during local
nighttime hours from late Monday through early Tuesday.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every
hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at
https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html  Near-real time maps and data about
ionospheric conditions are available at prop.kc2g.com
<http://www.prop.kc2g.com/>

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 20 minutes later and sunset is
ten minutes earlier than it was on June 21st. Sunrise is about two hours
earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the
F2 region than it is at ground level. The sun never sets today on the F2
region north of 45 degrees north latitude.

Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is 131 and is likely to
remain about the same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one very
large. three large and three medium sized active regions containing 47
sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1300 micro-hemispheres (about seven
times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by
M-class solar flares through Tuesday.

The solar wind is likely to be mildly enhanced at about 400-450 km/second
through early Tuesday, then gradually decreasing to near background levels
by late Tuesday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet through midday Monday,
increasing to moistly active with a slight chance of an isolated minor
geomagnetic storm through late Monday due to coronal hole high speed stream
effects. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely through midday Tuesday
steadily improving to mostly quiet through late Tuesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal early Tuesday. Short path propagation
between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be
mostly normal through Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation during local nighttime
hours from late Monday through early Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is
always mildly to moderately degraded within several  hours of local noon by
E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation
during local nighttime hours from late Monday through early Tuesday. 20
meter long distance propagation at low and mid latitudes in the northern
hemisphere is usually degraded from a few hours before noon until a few
hours after noon through late August by E region and sporadic-E blanketing
of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild
degradation during local nighttime hours from late Monday through early
Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to east
Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mild degradation of propagation crossing the auroral ovals
during local nighttime hours from late Monday through early Tuesday. 12 and
especially 10 meter long distance propagation crossing the north Atlantic
and north Pacific is degraded by seasonally lower daytime MUFs due to
reduced daytime free electron density in the F2 region through late
September. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
western Australia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through
Tuesday.

6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation up to 10,000 km in the
northern hemisphere from early morning through late evening hours is much
more sporadic, shorter in duration and much less reliable as we approach
the end of most sporadic-E propagation in mid-August. See K6MIO’s excellent
article about 6 meter long distance sporadic-E:
www.qsl.net/wa3mej/Articles/Propagation/6M%20Prop/K6MIO/Extreme%20Range%2050-MHz%20Es-%20East%E2%80%93West%20(EWEE).pdf

There is a very slight chance through Tuesday of brief 6 meter F2
trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to
South America and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7) from early afternoon
through late evening. There is a very slight chance through Tuesday of
brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly
from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa during
mid-afternoon.  There is a very slight chance through Tuesday of brief
isolated oblique-TEP to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during late afternoon
and early evening through Tuesday. There is a very slight chance that
stations in the lower 48 U.S. states may briefly couple into TEP and
oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E
propagation. TEP may be enhanced during the onset of strong to severe solar
flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial
enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP,
TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9
at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably
when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF
field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more
coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind
exceeding 500 km/second.   The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely
to remain at about 165 through Tuesday and is updated daily at 1700, 2000
and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength,
solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three
hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated
daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/data/ClassicalRWCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z
and 1230Z at: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated
daily at 2330Z at: https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net