[RSM] W3LPL forecast thru Wed, June 14

Tue Jun 13 03:03:39 EDT 2023

(Sorry I missed sending yesterday's forecast.  I hope you worked lots of
GUD DX anyhow. -- Art)

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2023 01:26:10 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal at low, mid and
high latitudes with possible mild degradations at high latitudes during
local night time hours through Wednesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve
other online sources (the URLs included in this forecast) is published five
days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are
in UTC (Zulu) time.   Propagation crossing low, mid and high latitudes is
likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

Propagation crossing auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly
normal with possible mild degradations during local night time hours at
high latitudes through Wednesday.

VE3EN’s End-of-Day Solar Report is published daily at 0045Z at
https://www.solarham.net

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every
hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 75 minutes later and day length
is 166 minutes longer than it was on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours
earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the
F2 region than it is at ground level. The sun never sets today in the F2
region above 45 degrees north latitude.

Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is 81. Today's Solar Flux
Index (SFI) is 146 and is likely to remain about the same through
Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has four medium and three tiny active
regions containing 46 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 630
micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

There is a slight chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio
blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Wednesday.

The solar wind is mildly enhanced at 450 km/second during Wednesday due to
mild coronal hole high speed stream and weak CME effects. The solar wind is
likely to decline to mostly ambient levels of about 350 km/second on
Wednesday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled with a chance of
isolated active conditions and a slight chance of a brief isolated minor
geomagnetic storm through Tuesday. Geomagnetic activity is likely to
improve to mostly quiet by early Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. Short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to
be mostly normal through Wednesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is
always mildly to moderately degraded within a few hours of local noon by
E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 20 meter long distance
propagation at low and mid latitudes in northern hemisphere is usually
degraded during daylight hours from June through September by E region and
sporadic-E blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America
to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal
through Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long distance propagation crossing the
north Atlantic and north Pacific is degraded by seasonally lower daytime
MUFs due to reduced daytime free electron density in the F2 region through
mid-September. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
western Australia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal
through Wednesday.

6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation up to 10,000 km and sometimes
more occurs daily in the northern hemisphere from early morning through
late evening hours through at least mid-July, but its duration and
geographic extent is both sporadic and unpredictable. See K6MIO’s excellent
article about 6 meter long distance sporadic-E:
www.qsl.net/wa3mej/Articles/Propagation/6M%20Prop/K6MIO/Extreme%20Range%2050-MHz%20Es-%20East%E2%80%93West%20(EWEE).pdf
There is a slight chance through Wednesday of brief 6 meter F2
trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to
South America and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7) from early afternoon
through late evening. There is a slight chance through Wednesday of brief
isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from
the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa during
mid-afternoon.  There is a slight chance through Wednesday of brief
isolated oblique-TEP to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during late afternoon
and early evening through Wednesday. There is a slight chance that stations
in the lower 48 U.S. states may briefly couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via
geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E propagation.
TEP may be enhanced during the onset of strong to severe geomagnetic storms
then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s
excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude
sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at:
http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

We have entered the summer solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances
are less severe and occur about half as often as during the equinox seasons.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours
or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind
exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength,
solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.  Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be
found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

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