[RSM] W3LPL forecast thru Sunday/18

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank Donovan <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2023 02:00:18 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal at low latitudes, mostly
normal at mid-latitudes and mildly degraded at high latitudes primarily
during local night time hours through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve
other online sources (the URLs are included this forecast) is published
five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast
are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through
Sunday improving to normal after early Sunday.

Propagation crossing auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly
normal with mild degradations during local night time hours at high
latitudes through early Sunday.

VE3EN’s End-of-Day Solar Report is published daily at 0045Z at
https://www.solarham.net

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every
hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.  prop.kc2g.com
<http://www.prop.kc2g.com/> provides
near-real time maps and data about ionospheric conditions.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 75 minutes later and day length
is 166 minutes longer than it was on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours
earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the
F2 region than it is at ground level. The sun never sets today on the F2
region above 45 degrees north latitude.

The June 15th Estimated International Sunspot Number is 119. Today's Solar
Flux Index (SFI) is 153 and is likely to remain about the same through
Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has five medium sized active regions
containing 43 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 540 micro-hemispheres
(about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

There is a slight chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio
blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Sunday.

The solar wind is strongly enhanced at about 700 km/second through midday
Friday. The solar wind is likely to decline gradually to moderately
enhanced at about 500 km/second by midday Saturday and further declining to
mildly enhanced and about 400 km/second by early Sunday due to coronal hole
high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled with isolated active
intervals through midday Saturday improving to quiet to unsettled through
early Sunday and becoming mostly quiet by midday Sunday.  There is a slight
chance of a minor geomagnetic storm through early Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mildly degraded early Saturday then mostly normal
through Sunday. Short path propagation from North America to east Asia
after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mildly degraded through early Saturday then mostly normal through
Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within
a few hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle
F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded through early Saturday
then mostly normal through Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a
few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mildly degraded through
early Saturday then mostly normal through Sunday. 20 meter long distance
propagation at low and mid latitudes in northern hemisphere is usually
degraded during daylight hours from June through September by E region and
sporadic-E blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mildly degraded
through early Saturday then mostly normal through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter
long path propagation from North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to
1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded during Friday then mostly normal
through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mildly degraded
through early Saturday then mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter
long distance propagation crossing the north Atlantic and north Pacific is
degraded by seasonally lower daytime MUFs due to reduced daytime free
electron density in the F2 region through mid-September. 12 and 10 meter
long path propagation from North America to western Australia from about
1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded during Friday then mostly
normal through Sunday.

6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation up to 10,000 km and
occasionally more occurs daily in the northern hemisphere from early
morning through late evening hours through at least mid-July, but its
duration and geographic extent is both sporadic and unpredictable. See
K6MIO’s excellent article about 6 meter long distance sporadic-E:
www.qsl.net/wa3mej/Articles/Propagation/6M%20Prop/K6MIO/Extreme%20Range%2050-MHz%20Es-%20East%E2%80%93West%20(EWEE).pdf
There is a very slight chance through Sunday of brief 6 meter F2
trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to
South America and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7) from early afternoon
through late evening. There is a very slight chance through Sunday of brief
isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from
the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa during mid-afternoon.
There is a very slight chance through Sunday of brief isolated oblique-TEP
to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during late afternoon and early evening
through Sunday. There is a very slight chance that stations in the lower 48
U.S. states may briefly couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically
focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be
enhanced during the onset of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then
significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent
article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude
sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at:
http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

We are in the summer solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are less
severe and occur about half as often as during the equinox seasons.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours
or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind
exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength,
solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.  Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be
found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net