[RSM] W3LPL forecast thru Thursday, June 22

Wed Jun 21 10:01:21 EDT 2023

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2023 02:06:05 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal at low and mid and
latitudes. Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be mostly normal with a chance of moderate degradations primarily
during local night time hours through Thursday June 22nd

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve
other online sources (the URLs are included this forecast) is published
five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local night time
hours through early Thursday.

VE3EN’s End-of-Day Solar Report is published daily at 0045Z at
https://www.solarham.net

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every
hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at
https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

 prop.kc2g.com <http://www.prop.kc2g.com/> provides near-real time maps and
data about ionospheric conditions.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 76 minutes later and day length
is 166 minutes longer than it was on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours
earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the
F2 region than it is at ground level. The sun never sets today on the F2
region above 45 degrees north latitude.

The June 20th International Sunspot Number was 203 and is likely to be
about the same through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, six
medium and two tiny active regions containing 65 sunspots with a total
sunspot area of 850 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of
the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares
are likely through Thursday. There is a chance of strong daytime radio
blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Wednesday.

The solar wind is likely to be moderately enhanced at about 400 km/second
through early Thursday, declining to near background levels below 350
km/second after midday Thursday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled with isolated active
intervals through Thursday. There is a slight chance of moderately degraded
intervals due to minor geomagnetic storms through Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal during local night time hours through
late Thursday. Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after
about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal with a slight chance of
moderately degraded intervals due to a chance of minor geomagnetic storms
through Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a possible moderately degraded intervals primarily
during local night time hours through early Thursday. 30 meter propagation
is always mildly to moderately degraded within a few hours of local noon by
E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of moderately
degraded intervals primarily during local night time hours due to a
chance  minor geomagnetic storms through early Thursday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal with a chance of moderately degraded intervals
primarily during local night time hours due to a chance of minor
geomagnetic storms through Thursday. 20 meter long distance propagation at
low and mid latitudes in northern hemisphere is usually degraded during
daylight hours from June through September by E region and sporadic-E
blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of moderately degraded intervals primarily during local night
time hours due to a chance of minor geomagnetic storms through Thursday. 17
and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to east Asia from
about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly
degraded intervals primarily during night time hours due to possible minor
geomagnetic storms through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of moderately degraded intervals primarily during night time
hours due to possible minor geomagnetic storms through Thursday. 12 and 10
meter long distance propagation crossing the north Atlantic and north
Pacific is degraded by seasonally lower daytime MUFs due to reduced daytime
free electron density in the F2 region through mid-September. 12 and 10
meter long path propagation from North America to western Australia from
about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
moderately degraded intervals primarily during night time hours due to a
chance of minor geomagnetic storms through Thursday.

6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation up to 10,000 km and
occasionally occurs in the northern hemisphere from early morning through
late evening hours through at least mid-July, but its duration and
geographic extent is both sporadic and unpredictable. See K6MIO’s excellent
article about 6 meter long distance sporadic-E:

www.qsl.net/wa3mej/Articles/Propagation/6M%20Prop/K6MIO/Extreme%20Range%2050-MHz%20Es-%20East%E2%80%93West%20(EWEE).pdf

There is a very slight chance through Thursday of brief 6 meter F2
trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to
South America and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7) from early afternoon
through late evening. There is a very slight chance through Thursday of
brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly
from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa during
mid-afternoon.  There is a very slight chance through Thursday of brief
isolated oblique-TEP to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during late afternoon
and early evening through Thursday. There is a very slight chance that
stations in the lower 48 U.S. states may briefly couple into TEP and
oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E
propagation. TEP may be enhanced during the onset of strong to severe solar
flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial
enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP,
TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9
at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

We are in the summer solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are less
severe and occur about half as often as during the equinox seasons.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours
or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind
exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength,
solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and
2300Z at
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three
hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated
daily at 1230Z at
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/data/ClassicalRWCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z
and 1230Z at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated
daily at 2330Z at https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net