[RSM] W3LPL forecast thru Sunday, Jul 2

Fri Jun 30 17:32:09 EDT 2023

Happy Canada Day! Go RSM!

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 30 Jun 2023 01:24:40 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be
normal and propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be normal on Friday then mostly normal through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve
other online sources (the URLs are included this forecast) is published
five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast
are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Sunday.   Propagation crossing auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to
be normal on Friday then mostly normal through Sunday. Mild degradations
are possible during Saturday local nighttime hours.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every
hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at
https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html   prop.kc2g.com
<http://www.prop.kc2g.com/> provides near-real time maps and data about
ionospheric conditions.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is one minute later and day length
is three minutes shorter than it was on June 21st. Sunrise is about two
hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of
the F2 region than it is at ground level. The sun never sets today on the
F2 region above 45 degrees north latitude.

Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is 108 and is likely to
remain about the same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one very
large, one medium and four tiny active regions containing 52 sunspots with
a total sunspot area of 1060 micro-hemispheres (about six times the surface
area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by
M-class solar flares through Sunday.  There is a slight chance of strong
daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Sunday.

The solar wind is moderately elevated at 502 km/second and is likely to
gradually decline to background levels of 400 km/second or less during
Friday then increasing to mildly elevated level at about 450 km/second over
the weekend.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet on Friday and mostly unsettled
with a chance of brief active intervals and a slight chance of a minor
geomagnetic storm over the weekend due to mild coronal hole high speed
stream and CME effects.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after
0000Z is likely to be normal during Friday then mostly normal through
Sunday. Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about
0930Z is likely to be normal during Friday and mostly through Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal during Friday then mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter
propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within a few hours of
local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be normal during Friday then mostly normal
through Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of
sunrise and sunset is likely to be normal during Friday then mostly normal
through Sunday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low and mid latitudes
in northern hemisphere is usually degraded during daylight hours from June
through August by E region and sporadic-E blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal during
Friday then mostly normal through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path
propagation from North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is
likely to be normal during Friday then mostly normal through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal during
Friday then mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long distance
propagation crossing the north Atlantic and north Pacific is degraded by
seasonally lower daytime MUFs due to reduced daytime free electron density
in the F2 region through mid-September. 12 and 10 meter long path
propagation from North America to western Australia from about 1200Z to
1400Z is likely to be normal during Friday then mostly normal through
Sunday.

6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation up to 10,000 km occasionally
occurs in the northern hemisphere from early morning through late evening
hours through at least mid-July, but its duration and geographic extent is
both sporadic and unpredictable. See K6MIO’s excellent article about 6
meter long distance sporadic-E:
www.qsl.net/wa3mej/Articles/Propagation/6M%20Prop/K6MIO/Extreme%20Range%2050-MHz%20Es-%20East%E2%80%93West%20(EWEE).pdf

There is a very slight chance through Sunday of brief 6 meter F2
trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to
South America and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7) from early afternoon
through late evening. There is a very slight chance through Sunday of brief
isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from
the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa during
mid-afternoon.  There is a very slight chance through Sunday of brief
isolated oblique-TEP to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during late afternoon
and early evening through Sunday. There is a very slight chance that
stations in the lower 48 U.S. states may briefly couple into TEP and
oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E
propagation. TEP may be enhanced during the onset of strong to severe solar
flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial
enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP,
TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9
at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

We are in the summer solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are less
severe, shorter duration and occur about half as often as during the
equinox seasons.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours
or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind
exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength,
solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and
2300Z at
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three
hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated
daily at 1230Z at
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/data/ClassicalRWCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z
and 1230Z at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated
daily at 2330Z at https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net