[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Sunday/12

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2023 02:34:37 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal through Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
The March 8th daily Estimated International Sunspot Number is 163. Today's
solar flux index (SFI) is 179 and is likely to decline slightly through
Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, five medium and five tiny
active regions containing 45 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 740
micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

There is a chance of mild R1-class to moderate R2-class daytime radio
blackouts caused by X-ray radiation from M-class solar flares through
Sunday. There is a slight chance of strong R3-class daytime radio blackouts
through Sunday .

Mild solar wind currently just above 400 km/second is likely to remain
about the same through Sunday due to weak coronal hole high speed stream
effects and possible glancing CME blows.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a
chance of active intervals through Sunday due to weak coronal hole high
speed stream effects and possible glancing CME blows.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be mostly
normal through Sunday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America to
southeast Asia at about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter long path propagation from
North America to southeast Asia at about 2300Z is likely to be mostly
normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through
Sunday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere
mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index is above
120 and geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less).

There is a slight chance through Sunday of trans-equatorial F2
trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to
South America from mid-afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser
chance through Sunday of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S. states
to VK/ZL and the south Pacific during mid-afternoon and early evening in
the U.S. There is a lesser chance that U.S. stations at mid-latitudes may
briefly couple into both TEP and oblique-TEP via brief isolated intervals
of mid-latitude sporadic-E propagation. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6
meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to
TEP beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 700 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index
forecast are available here:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 82 minutes later and day length
is 137 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net