[RSM] W3LPL: Forecast for Mon & Tue, March 27, 28

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 27 Mar 2023 01:00:16 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
Mildly degraded periods are likely at high latitudes during local night
time hours through Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal through Tuesday. Mildly degraded periods are likely at high
latitudes during local night time hours through Tuesday.

VE3EN’s End-of-Day Solar Report is published daily at 0045Z at:
https://www.solarham.net

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is seven minutes later and day
length is 18 minutes longer than it was on March 20th.

The March 27th daily Estimated International Sunspot Number is 126. Today's
solar flux index (SFI) is 159 and is likely to remain about the same on
Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, six medium and two tiny
active region containing 52 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 900
micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

There is a slight chance of isolated brief minor radio blackouts on the sun
facing side of the earth through Tuesday.

The solar wind is strongly enhanced at 600 km/second is likely to remain
strongly enhanced by coronal hole high speed stream effects through Tuesday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to remain quiet to unsettled through Tuesday
due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. We are in the vernal equinox
season when geomagnetic disturbances are about 50% more likely than during
most of the year.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal but with mildly degraded periods during
local night time hours through Tuesday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be mostly normal
but with mildly degraded periods during local night time hours through
mid-day Tuesday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America to
southeast Asia at about 2330Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal but with mildly degraded periods during local night
time hours through Tuesday. 30 meter long path propagation from North
America to southeast Asia at about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation us always mildly degraded within a
few hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but with mildly degraded
periods during local night time hours through Tuesday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal but with mildly degraded periods during local night time hours
through Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal but
with mildly degraded periods during local night time hours through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal but
with mildly degraded periods during local night time hours through Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to east Asia from
about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to mostly normal through Tuesday. 12 and 10
meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely
to be enhanced when the solar flux index is above 120 and geomagnetic
activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less).

There is a chance through Tuesday of trans-equatorial F2 trans-equatorial
propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America
from early afternoon through late evening. There is a chance through
Tuesday of oblique-TEP from the southern tier and western U.S. states to
VK/ZL and the south Pacific during late afternoon and early evening. There
is a lesser chance that U.S. stations at mid-latitudes may briefly couple
into both TEP and oblique-TEP via brief isolated intervals of mid-latitude
sporadic-E propagation. TEP and oblique-TEP may be enhanced during strong
geomagnetic storms that occur more frequently during the vernal equinox
season. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP,
TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 66
at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours
or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME (faster
than 700 km per second).  Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index
forecast are available here:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net