[RSM] W3LPL forcast Mon/8 thru Tues/9

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 8 May 2023 02:27:24 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Low latitude propagation is likely to be mostly below
normal on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday. Mid latitude propagation is
likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. High latitude propagation is
likely to be below normal on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve
other online sources (the URLs are included this forecast) is published
five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast
are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mostly below normal on
Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday. There is a chance of moderate
to severe degradations on Monday due to possible strong to severe
geomagnetic storms and a slight chance of moderate degradations early
Tuesday due to a chance of moderate to strong geomagnetic storms.
Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through
Tuesday. There is a chance of moderate to severe degradations on Monday due
to possible strong to severe geomagnetic storms and a slight chance of
moderate degradations early Tuesday due to a chance of moderate to strong
geomagnetic storms.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
below normal on Monday and mostly normal through Tuesday. There is a chance
of moderate to severe degradations on Monday due to possible strong to
severe geomagnetic storms and a slight chance of moderate degradations
early Tuesday due to a chance of moderate to strong geomagnetic storms.

VE3EN’s End-of-Day Solar Report is published daily at 0045Z at:
https://www.solarham.net

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every
hour at: https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 48 minutes later and day length
is 116 minutes longer than it was on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours
earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the
F2 region than it is at ground level. The sun never sets in the F2 region
on this date at distances more than 400 miles north of the border with the
lower 48 US states.

The May 7th Estimated International Sunspot Number was 129. Today's Solar
Flux Index (SFI) is 157 and likely to be about the same through Tuesday.
The sun’s visible disk has one very large, one large and three medium
active regions containing 49 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1050
micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares
are likely through Tuesday. There is a slight chance of isolated strong
daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Tuesday.

The solar wind is likely to be elevated to 500 km/second or more through
late Monday due to effects of coronal hole high speed streams and multiple
CMEs. There is a chance of continuing CH HSS and CME effects through
mid-day Tuesday, otherwise the solar wind should gradually decline to
moderate levels of about 400 km/second through late Tuesday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be at strong to severe geomagnetic storm
levels through mid-day Monday, declining to minor to moderate storm levels
through early Tuesday, then improving to mostly active to unsettled
conditions through late Tuesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
South Pacific is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving
to mostly normal on Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly below normal early Tuesday improving to mostly
normal by late Tuesday. Short path propagation from North America to east
Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be below normal on Monday improving to
mostly normal on Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday.
30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within a few
hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving
to mostly normal on Tuesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few
hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday
improving to mostly normal on Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below
normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter
long path propagation from North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to
1400Z is likely to be  below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on
Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below
normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter
long distance propagation crossing the north Atlantic and north Pacific is
suffering from normal seasonal MUF decline due to reduced free electron
density in the F2 region through mid-September. 12 and 10 meter long path
propagation from North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is
likely to be below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday.

There is a chance through Tuesday of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial
propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America
from early afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser chance through
Tuesday of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to equatorial
Africa during mid-afternoon and to VK/ZL and the south Pacific during late
afternoon and early evening. There is a slight chance that stations at
mid-latitudes in the U.S. may briefly couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via
brief geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E or
enhanced F2 propagation. TEP may be enhanced during the onset of strong to
severe geomagnetic storms. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP,
oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP
beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours
or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind
faster than 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength,
solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net