[RSM] W3LPL forecast Tues/9 and Wed/10

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 9 May 2023 01:00:59 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Low and mid-latitude propagation is likely to be normal
then mostly normal after mid-day Wednesday. High latitude propagation is
likely to be mostly below normal through mid-day Tuesday, mostly normal
through mid-day Wednesday then mostly below normal through late Wednesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve
other online sources (the URLs are included this forecast) is published
five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast
are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on Tuesday and
mostly normal on Wednesday. There is a chance of moderate degradations
after mid-day Wednesday due to possible strong geomagnetic storms.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal on Tuesday and
mostly normal on Wednesday. There is a chance of moderate to strong
degradations after mid-day Wednesday due to possible strong geomagnetic
storms.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly below normal through Wednesday. There is a chance of moderate to
severe degradations after mid-day Wednesday due to possible strong
geomagnetic storms.

VE3EN’s End-of-Day Solar Report is published daily at 0045Z at
https://www.solarham.net

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every
hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 49 minutes later and day
length is 118 minutes longer than it was on March 20th. Sunrise is about
two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km
altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level. The sun never sets in
the F2 region on this date at distances more than 400 miles north of the
Canadian border with the lower 48 US states.

The May 8th Estimated International Sunspot Number was 132. Today's Solar
Flux Index (SFI) is 172 and likely to be about the same through Wednesday.
The sun’s visible disk has one very large, one large, one medium and one
tiny active region containing 51 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1040
micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares
are likely through Wednesday. There is a slight chance of isolated strong
daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Wednesday.

The solar wind is likely to remain moderately elevated to about 450
km/second through mid-day Wednesday due to effects of coronal hole high
speed streams. There is a chance of CME effects after mid-day Wednesday
that could elevate the solar wind to 500 km/second or more.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to quiet to unsettled through mid-day
Wednesday. There is a chance of CME effects after mid-day Wednesday that
could elevate geomagnetic activity to minor to moderate geomagnetic storm
levels.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
South Pacific is likely to be normal on Tuesday then mostly normal on
Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal early Wednesday then mostly below
normal late Wednesday. Short path propagation from North America to east
Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on through Wednesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through mid-day Wednesday then mostly below normal late
Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded
within a few hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance
low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through mid-day Wednesday
then mostly below normal late Wednesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal
through mid-day Wednesday then mostly below normal late Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through mid-day Wednesday then mostly below normal late Wednesday. 17 and
15 meter long path propagation from North America to east Asia from about
1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through mid-day Wednesday then mostly below normal late Wednesday. 12 and
10 meter long distance propagation crossing the north Atlantic and north
Pacific is suffering from normal seasonally lower MUFs due to reduced free
electron density in the F2 region through mid-September. 12 and 10 meter
long path propagation from North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to
1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

There is a chance through Wednesday of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial
propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America
from early afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser chance through
Wednesday of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to equatorial
Africa during mid-afternoon and to VK/ZL and the south Pacific during late
afternoon and early evening. There is a slight chance that stations at
mid-latitudes in the U.S. may briefly couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via
brief geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E or
enhanced F2 propagation. TEP may be enhanced during the onset of strong to
severe geomagnetic storms. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP,
oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP
beginning on page 9 at:   http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours
or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind
faster than 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength,
solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z daily

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net