[RSM] W3LPL forecast thru Sunday, Oct 2

[Art Boyars]

(Still waiting to hear from anybody who wants to continue receiving these
W3LPL forecasts -- Art K3KU/VE4VTR)

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 29 Sep 2023 00:30:54 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Low latitude propagation is likely to be normal and
mid-latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. High
latitude propagation is likely to be mildly degraded during local night
hours through Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve
other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five
days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are
in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every
hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at
https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html   Near-real time maps and data about HF
ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is six minutes later and sunset is
nine minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two
hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of
the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is 124 and is likely to
remain mostly unchanged through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has six
medium and one tiny active region containing 39 sunspots with a total
sunspot area of 640 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area
of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts
caused by M-class solar flares through Sunday.

Solar wind speed is likely to steadily decline to less than 400 km/second
through Friday, rising to about 450 km/second during Saturday due to a weak
glancing blow by a CME, declining to background levels of less than 400
km/second during Sunday.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Friday, unsettled to
active on Saturday due to possible effects of a glancing blow by a CME,
improving to mostly quiet on Sunday due to waning CME effects.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after
about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path
propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely
to be normal through Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly
to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region
blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Sunday. 20 meter long distance propagation at
low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar
noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of
long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path
propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z
to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal on Friday, mostly normal on
Saturday and normal on Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly
normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North
America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is
likely to be normal on Friday, mostly normal on Saturday and normal on
Sunday.   We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic
conditions are much more likely and more severe than during the solstice
seasons.
There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the
southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through
early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated
propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the
southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic
(e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of
very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the
south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more
northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via
geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals
mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly
enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to
severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly
degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6
meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to
TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably
when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF
field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours
coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind
exceeding 500 km/second.   The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely
to be about 148 through Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at
1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength,
solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three
hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated
daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/data/ClassicalRWCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z
and 1230Z at: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated
daily at 2330Z at: https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

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