[RSM] Fwd: Solar Max Prediction

[Jerry Spring]

Sent from my iPhone

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Jerry <jspring at telus.net>
> Date: August 20, 2024 at 10:12:37 PM MDT
> To: Cary Rubenfeld <carys1 at gmail.com>
> Subject: Solar Max Prediction
> 
> 
> Hi Cary,
>  
> I just dug out my solar max prediction from a PowerPoint I presented to the RSM on May 9, 2024.  Based on the data at that time, I predicted the peak to be in November, 2024.  At the time, it appeared that we might have already passed the peak but using the statistical half-width of previous cycles suggested that the peak lay ahead.  As you know, we’ve been experiencing much higher SFI and SSN values since then, so the prediction seems to be on target (so far). 
>  
> 
>  
> Here is the latest progression curve from SpaceWeatherLive.com:
>  
> 
>  
> I believe the current predicted peak in flux may be a bit too far out (Feb, 2025) but this is still within the +/- 3 months error bar (and far better than the original NASA prediction although they really blew it on the magnitude of the peak). 
>  
> Jerry VE6TL
>