[RTTY] Daily Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Discussion & HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast

[Timothy Holmes]

Hey Thomas

Do you send out forecasts like this is daily?  If so, please put me on the
list. This is great

Tim
W8TAH

On Wed, Feb 8, 2017, 7:10 AM Thomas F. Giella W4HM <thomasfgiella at gmail.com>
wrote:

> For my hamateur radio and SWL friends around the globe:
>
> I have decided to begin posting some of my daily solar, space and
> geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave propagation forecasts in
> my Twitter account at @GiellaW4hm . Of course it will consist of little
> snippets of what's going on as Twitter severely limits tweets as far as
> content length.
>
> Feel free to redistribute this "not for profit" solar, space and
> geomagnetic
> weather discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
> redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it.
>
> Also feel free to leave a "LIKE" every time you access this discussion and
> forecast as it's the only method I have to gauge the usefulness of it.
>
> Images for this HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found at
> https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
>
> Issued on Wednesday February 08, 2017 at 1130 UTC
>
> Global HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
>
> HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS:
>
> NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
>
> 80-60 (75-60) meters- good at night and poor at day,
>
> 40-30 (41-25) meters- good at night and fair at day,
>
> 20-17 (22-15) meters- very poor at night and good at day,
>
> 15 (13) meters- very poor at night and fair to good at day,
>
> 12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and poor at day.
>
> SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
>
> 80-60 (75-60) meters- poor at night and very poor at day,
>
> 40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and poor at day,
>
> 20-17 (22-15) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
>
> 15 (13) meters- poor at night and fair at day,
>
> 12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.
>
> Received RF signal strength scale-
>
> Very Good- +1 over S9  Or Greater
> Good- S7-9
> Fair- S4-6
> Poor- S1-3
> Very Poor- S0
>
> Meter Band Equivalents
> Ham & SWL
> 160->   90
> 80->     75
> 60->     60
> 40->     49, 41
> 30->     31, 25
> 20->     22, 19
> 17->    16, 15
> 15->    13
> 12,10-> 11
>
> Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
> propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable by the average
> radio enthusiast.
>
> Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
> during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
> the summer and winter solstices.
>
> Conditions also change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
> sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
> ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
> maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
> critical frequency (FoF2).
>
> The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
> absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
> propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.
>
> Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
> static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
> mostly bad.
>
> Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
> wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
>
> Tuesday February 7, 2017-
>
> Solar activity was low.
>
> Earth's magnetic field was quiet.
>
> The solar flux index (SFI) was 72.2 72.1 71.7.
>
> The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 11.
>
> Unofficially today the daily SSN is 0.
>
> In 2017 there were 10 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
> Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately three more
> years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 is occurring unusually early.
>
> In 2016 there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
> Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately three more
> years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 is occurring unusually early.
>
> Newly risen sunspot group #12634 was located near N03E44, with a simple
> beta
> magnetic signature.
>
> And as of yet unnumbered sunspot group is located near N15E45.
>
> .As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24
> and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily sunspot number will dramatically
> increase. Eventually most every day for many many months will see a 0.
>
> In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years
> and that came forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25
> would
> be virtually non existent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that
> occurred in the early 1800's.
>
> No earth directed solar flares occurred.
>
> No earth directed coronal mass ejections (CME) occurred.
>
> No earth directed collapsing magnetic filament eruptions occurred.
>
> The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was at quiet
> geomagnetic conditions 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2.
>
> The maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between 9 and 3,
> which
> was at unsettled to quiet geomagnetic conditions.
>
> The averaged background x-ray flux was A6.3.
>
> The vertical component (Bz) of earth's magnetic field was +2.1 nT north.
>
> The Dst ranged between -12 and +3.
>
> No energetic proton events greater than 10 MeV (10+0) occurred.
>
> The maximum and minimum solar wind speed was 533 and 449. km/s.
>
> There was a recurrent transequatorial earth facing coronal hole #789
> (#784).
> During it's last passage across the earth facing side of the sun it
> produced
> no negative impacts on HF radio wave propagation.
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
> 0-2- quiet
> 3- unsettled
> 4- active
> 5- minor geomagnetic storming
> 6- moderate
> 7- strong
> 8- severe
> 9- extreme
> 10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
>
> The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
> 0-7- quiet
> 8-15 unsettled
> 16-29- active
> 30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
> 50-99- major
> 100-400- severe
> >401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
> HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
>
> NOTE!!!  The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
> intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
> interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F.
> Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
> allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.
>
> All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order
> to
> see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible.
>
> 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
>
> 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
>
> 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
> of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
>
> 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
> consecutively are best.
>
> 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
> than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
>
> 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
>
> 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
> consecutively, greater than C1 best.
>
> 8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
>
> 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
> indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
> absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
> signals, when the Kp is above 3.
>
> 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the
> recovery
> time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current.
> A
> positive number is best.
>
> 11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer
> critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
> capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
>
> 12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
> towards zero.
>
> 13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).
>
> 14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
> consecutively.
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Standard Disclaimer-
>
> Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
> Environment Center, other U.S. government organizations and educational
> institutions, to produce my comprehensive radio wave propagation forecast.
> This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer
> $$$ (including mine).
>
> However the propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain
> data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this radio wave
> propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
> F. Giella, W4HM.
>
> Feel free to redistribute this solar, space and geomagnetic weather
> discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
> redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it.
>
> Also solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
> science. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby
> related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God,
> therefore no guarantee or warranty implied
>
> 73 & GUD DX,
> Thomas F. Giella W4HM
> Lakeland, FL, USA
> thomasfgiella at gmail.com
>
> _______________________________________________
> RTTY mailing list
> RTTY at contesting.com
> http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/rtty
>
-- 

Tim Holmes - W8TAH
Sent from my LG Stylo