[TenTec] Shootout at OK Corral

[Steve Baron - KB3MM]

Is it possible that HF rigs are too heavy on the belt ?

----- Original Message ----- 
From: <ac5e at comcast.net>
To: <tentec at contesting.com>
Sent: Wednesday, November 19, 2003 01:36
Subject: Re: [TenTec] Shootout at OK Corral


>
> The Japanese "Big Three" all seem to be vigorously pursuing the VHF/UHF
market with late offerings from all three brands. Of course, the actual
source of those radios has been a matter of speculation, with assembly
taking place in low wage countries such as South Korea, China, and Indonesia
the most popular suspects. The HF market is another matter.
>
> Kenwood has announced at least one new HF rig, the TS480. Perhaps two, if
the TS69 announced at Dayton turns out to be a different rig from the '480.
I seriously doubt Vertex/Yaesu has abandoned the HF market - the current
price down looks more like a warehouse clearance to make room for new
product instead of a sellout. Icom has announced the IC7800, with a mockup
at Dayton and production supposedly coming someday soon. Whether there are
more HF rigs on the way is an open question. Certainly the pricing has
gotten sufficently low to eat into profits.
>
> Two things will have a profound effect on the HF market. The first is
exchange rates - this administration seems determined to put the dollar on a
fair exchange basis with Asian currencies and that's going to mean sharply
higher prices or a corresponding reduction in anything beyond basic
functionality.
>
> The other is the percieved size of the Amateur Radio market. If our
numbers stop growing the perception will be of a shrinking market that's not
worth developing product for. My crystal ball is broken, so we shall have to
wait to see what we shall see on that front. Perhaps the next generation of
JA HF rigs will also be "Hecho in China."
>
> However, my wish list includes an HF rig between the Jupiter and Orion to
compete with the 746 PRO or PROII or maybe PROIII, a "Jupiter Lite" with
conventional controls for a 100 watt mobile rig, an update of the 253
automatic KW tuner, and a 100 watt allmode 6/2/70cm rig.
>
> Interesting times we live in - but history says any time will be
interesting to the interested.
>
> 73  Pete Allen  AC5E
>
>
>
>
>
> > It's clear from the recent discussions on this reflector that we hams
are
> > now in the brave new world of software-driven transceivers and there's
no
> > turning back. In ten years, I suspect, there will be for sale few--if
> > any--analog rigs with DSP add-ons that are so plentiful today. That's
both
> > good news and bad news.
> >
> > The good news is that today's DSP chips can do stuff that couldn't be
done
> > a mere three or four years ago by those analog rigs.
> >
> > The bad news is that transceivers using these chips cannot be built on
the
> > cheap. The chips are expensive, and even more expensive are the software
> > design teams that make them work.
> >
> > More bad news: It looks as if the financial challenge of building and
> > marketing software-driven transceivers for hams has already resulted in
> > three casualties--Japan Radio, Kenwood and Yaesu. There is no sign that
any
> > of these companies are able or willing to shoulder the heavy investment
> > required to bring capable mostly-DSP rigs to the U.S. ham market. That
> > leaves ICOM and Ten-Tec.
> >
> > Now that Ten-Tec has entered the upper end of the U.S. ham market (which
is
> > actually the lower end of the international transceiver market) with the
> > Orion, I hope it can come up with a product priced at about half of what
> > the Orion costs that can compete with the IC-746 PRO, which has a single
> > sophisticated 32-bit floating-point chip.
> >
> >  From my vantage, the battle for dominance of the U.S. ham market is
> > rapidly coming down to just two gunslingers with cartridges left in
their
> > belts--ICOM and Ten-Tec. I don't think Ten-Tec releases sales numbers;
> > ICOM, as I recall, had sales of $200+ million in 2002.
> >
> > Above is all IMHO.
> >
> > 73,
> > John, W3ULS
> >
> >
> >
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