[TOEC] [Fwd: AstroAlert: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch -
14-16 Sept]
sm3jla at telia.com
sm3jla at telia.com
Mon Sep 13 10:38:55 EDT 2004
Hmmm!
Hoppas det hinner lugna av innan helgen.
Det har inte kommit någon ny flare av betydelse så med lite tur så kan
helgen bli ok.
Kolla här http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html
Auroran kommer ca 48-96 timmar efter ett utbrott beroende på
solvindshastigheten som kan variera rätt mycke. (ca 200-1000km/s)
/JLA
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jan Erik Holm" <sm2ekm at telia.com>
To: <toec at contesting.com>
Sent: Monday, September 13, 2004 3:41 PM
Subject: [TOEC] [Fwd: AstroAlert: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch -
14-16 Sept]
> Nu är det på gång!!!!
>
> 73 de EKM
> --------------------------
>
> -------- Original Message --------
> Subject: AstroAlert: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch - 14-16 Sept
> Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 11:06:34 +0000 (GMT)
> From: Cary Oler <oler at solar.spacew.com>
> To: sun-earth at SkyandTelescope.com
>
> =================================================================
> This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
> =================================================================
>
> A s t r o A l e r t
> Sun-Earth Alert
>
> Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
> http://www.spacew.com
>
> 13 September 2004
>
>
> MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH - 14-16 September
>
> An active sunspot complex produced a near-major solar flare on 12
> September that is suspected to have produced one and possibly two closely
> spaced Earthward-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Available data
> from
> the SOHO spacecraft has been sparse and does not yet allow a coherent
> analysis of the events. What data is available seems to contain the
> signature
> of at least one full-halo (Earthward-directed) event.
>
> The inferred velocity of the mass ejection(s) have been primarily
> determined from solar radio observations of the inner-coronal shock
> velocities, which have averaged near 850 kilometers per second. Assuming a
> radial trajectory that is centered somewhat east of the Earth, the shock
> front from the leading CME should arrive at the Earth in the late UTC
> hours
> of 14 September or the early UTC hours of 15 September (for North America,
> this corresponds to the early evenings hours of 14 September to the early
> morning hours of 15 September Eastern Daylight Savings Time). The second
> CME
> (if one exists) will be imbedded within the flow of the leading CME and
> may
> further enhance the potential for producing auroral activity.
>
> The impact of this disturbance has the potential to produce periods
> of
> moderately strong auroral activity across fairly widespread middle
> latitude
> regions. Thus, a middle latitude auroral activity watch has been issued.
> The
> contents of the watch are included below.
>
> MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
> Issued: 07:20 UTC, 13 September 2004
> Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
> www.spacew.com
>
>
> VALID BEGINNING AT: 15:00 UTC (11 am EDT) 14 SEPTEMBER
> VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 16 SEPTEMBER
>
> PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: 01:00 UTC 15 SEPT (9 pm EDT 14 Sept)
>
> HIGH RISK PERIOD: 15 SEPTEMBER
> MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14 - 16 SEPTEMBER
>
> PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 10, 20, 35, 17 (13 - 16 SEPTEMBER)
>
> POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
>
> POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
> MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
>
> ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
>
> EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE
>
> OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD
>
> AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
>
> NORTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO
> ILLINOIS
> TO OHIO TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND.
>
> ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
>
> ENGLAND TO NORTHERN BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO
> NORTHERN BELARUS TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.
>
> ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...
>
> NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA.
>
>
> SYNOPSIS...
>
> The arrival of a coronal mass ejection will increase levels of
> geomagnetic and auroral activity toward storm levels late on 14 or early
> on
> 15 September (UTC time). The potential exists for periods of moderately
> strong auroral activity to become visible over fairly widespread middle
> latitude regions.
>
> This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
> 16 September. It will then be allowed to expire. For updated information,
> visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of
> current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
> www.sec.noaa.gov.
>
> PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
> http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
>
>
> ** End of Astroalert **
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