TopBand: [Fwd: BULLETIN: Solar Maximum Rush]

[Bill Tippett]

>Thought you might find this note from Cary Oler of interest.  73,  Ted  N4XX

>In a recent notice by Dr. Dick Altrock of the USAF and in conjunction with the
>National Solar Observatory, the following notice regarding the current state of
>the solar cycle as it pertains to coronal Fe XIV emissions was released.
>
>It is of interest because of its prediction for the timing of this solar
>maximum, which according to current estimates of Fe XIV data, might occur much
>earlier than other predictions indicate.  The most popular and previously
>accurate methods have estimated that the solar maximum in sunspot activity will
>occur sometime in the year 2000.
>
>We have quoted Dr. Altrocks statements verbatim as follows:
>
>"RUSH TO THE POLES" HAS BEGUN
>
>The first reliable precursor to the maximum of solar activity that will
>occur near the turn of the century has been identified.  A study of the
>long-term variation of emission features in Fe XIV has shown that,
>prior to Solar Maximum, emission features appear near 55 degrees
>latitude in both hemispheres and begin to move towards the poles at a
>rate of 9 to 12 degrees of latitude per year.  This motion is
>maintained for a period of 3 or 4 years, at which time the emission
>features disappear at the poles.  This phenomenon, which represents the
>fastest global motion of any kind on the sun that is sustained for such
>an interval, has been referred to as the "Rush to the Poles".  The
>maximum of solar activity, as represented by the number of sunspots on
>the sun, occurs approximately 14 months before the features reach the poles.
>
>In early 1997, emission features appeared near 55 degrees latitude, and
>subsequent observations have shown that these features are moving
>towards the poles.  This then is the Rush to the Poles that heralds the
>next Solar Maximum.  Based on previous observations, these features
>will reach the poles sometime between March 2000 and January 2001,
>which results in a prediction for Solar Maximum of between January and
>November 1999, substantially earlier than some other predictions.
>
>Dick Altrock, altrock@sunspot.noao.edu
>USAF/AFRL/VSBS and NSO/Sacramento Peak
>(505)434-7016
>
>


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