Topband: Solar Cycle 23 Peak

[Thomas Giella]

O 9/13/00 Bill W4ZV Posted:
Where did the sunspots go?! 
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On 9/13/00 I responded back to him but forgot to include it on the
Topband Reflector. Here it is.
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Thomas KN4LF Said:  
  August 2000 was supposed to be the mathematical peak of the present
sunspot cycle. The month long plus relatively quiet conditions with
relatively low solar flux (well under 200), no major X class solar
flares and only the ocassional ionospheric storm (2) is HIGHLY unusual
near or at sunspot peak and/or as the cycle is building to maximum peak. 
  I think we may be observing something rare and unusual and may
demonstrate what we still do NOT know about the sun. Will activity heat
up again? most certainly, are we going to see better proagation this
winter due to less signal absorption, very doubtful. 
  I have a website where I post monthly maximum and minimum solar
flux levels. You can see the present cycle's rise at
http://kn4lf.tripod.com/index-11.html
==========
On 9/14/00 Thomas KN4LF Says:
    I looked back at my records and see that we had 18 consecutive days
with a solar flux value of 200 or higher in July 2000, with a peak of
262 on 7/18, the largest number of consecutive days this cycle with a
solar flux value above 200. Also during this period the daily maximum
sunspot count exceeded 400. Since the end of that 18 day period the
daily maximum solar flux has remained below 200 for 51 consecutive days. 
   The maximum daily solar flux for August 2000 was only 193 and so far
in September 2000 only 188. This would seem to indicate that cycle 23
could have peaked in July 2000?, instead of the original NOAA prediction
of an August 2000 peak.
   Now the bad news, NOAA now projects December 2000 to be the peak of
solar cycle 23 with a smoothed sunspot number of 140. August 2000 136,
September 2000 137, October 2000 138, November 2000 139, (December 2000
140), January 2001 136.   
   A similar table for smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux shows the predicted
peak around March, 2001 at 189. August 2000 187, September 2000 187,
October 2000 186, November 2000 through February 2001 187, (March 2001)
189, April 2001 188, May 2001 187, June 2001 186.
   I think we will have to wait until winter 2001-2002 when solar flux
levels consistently stay below 150, before we start to see a real
improvement in propagation on 160 meters.    

Take Care,

Thomas Giella, KN4LF
P.O. Box 1987
Plant City, Fl. 33564

Grid Square- EL88VA
CQ Zone 5
kn4lf@webtv.net

Continental Weather Corporation Site:
http://www.aallweather.com 

KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Site:
http://kn4lf.tripod.com
      
Florida Tropical And Severe Weather Site:
http://kn4lf.tripod.com/index-3.html

Florida Severe Storm Photographs Site:
http://kn4lf.tripod.com/index-2.html

Giella Webpage Design Site:
http://kn4lf.tripod.com/index-1.html

Giella Weather Forecasting And Consulting Site:
http://kn4lf.tripod.com/index-29.html





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