Topband: Correlation

[Bill Tippett]

         Not to beat a dead horse on this but there is VERY
strong correlation with the low flux and stable geomagnetic
conditions which exist at solar cycle lows.  The following
data was gathered for the RM-10352 petition by K1ZM and
myself.  Granted, it is virtually impossible to predict 160
conditions from one day to the next, but there is very strong
long-term correlation to the stage of the solar cycle.  This
can also be observed by looking at the year all-time
DX contest records were set on 160.  Current records for
both modes of the CQ WW Contests were set in 1996.

                                 73,  Bill  W4ZV

http://users.vnet.net/btippett/rm_petition.htm

Comparison of 160 m Contact Levels by US Multi-Multi Contest Entrants Over Time

The matrix appearing below represents the aggregation of 160 m contact 
totals of the 5 top-scoring USA multi-multi entrants during 48 hours in the 
CQWW CW DX Contests from 1975 - 2000. A definite trendline of increasing 
contact totals can be seen as well as variations caused by solar cycle 
maxima and minima. Solar maxima present somewhat unfavorable conditions on 
1.8 MHz due to increased levels of signal absorption. Solar minima offer 
favorable conditions for 160 m enthusiasts due to decreased absorption. The 
matrix indicates increasing activity levels on 160 m throughout the period 
with short periods of reduced activity around solar maxima.

Year Contacts (Sum of Top 5 USA Multi-Multi QSO's on 160 m in CQ CW DX Tests)

1975 214

1976 300 Cycle Minimum June 1976

1977 295

1978 229

1979 235 Cycle 21 Maximum December 1979

1980 215

1981 298

1982 230

1983 407

1984 502

1985 647

1986 546 Cycle Minimum September 1986

1987 495

1988 391

1989 392 Cycle 22 Maximum June 1989

1990 523

1991 381

1992 433

1993 890

1994 781

1995 1299

1996 1474 Cycle Minimum May 1996

1997 704

1998 898

1999 996

2000 1092 Cycle 23 Maximum April 2000