Topband: Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle

[Guy Olinger, K2AV]

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/21dec_cycle24.htm?list50675

...For supposedly being at a solar minimum
now, the sun has really not been behaving like
past minima...at least the ones I've seen since
being on 160...73, Bill...

 -----

Thanks for the URL.

Simply reading the graph in the posted URL, although OVERALL PEAK 
correlation is high, using a single geomagnetic peak to predict a 
single sunspot maximum seems a reach. And there is a lot more 
information in the graph besides the peaks.

Depending on how you read it, either peak 15 or 16 was NOT predicted, 
and further, peak 23 (the last one) was NOT tightly predicted. 23 
should have been more like 21 and 22.

There seems to be a CYCLE to the predictable tight correlation, 17 
through 22 being in very close synch. If anything one should guess 
that we are now in a period of lesser correlation.

The most recent geomagnetic peak is not as high as the one before 
cycle 22. How they get a 1958 style sunspot maxima for cycle 24 from 
that graph is beyond me. What ever else they may be using as is not in 
the article.

What is most informative for me is to correlate the MINIMUMS. In the 
period of cycles 12-16 (source of data?) the distinctive geomagnetic 
minimums of cycles 17-23 are missing, AND there is a distinctive 
random or noisy nature to the ups and downs not related to 11 year 
cycles. The "noise" appears to be something like 5+ nT in amplitude.

Cycle 19 ('58 hard sky) geomagnetic and sunspot shapes can be laid on 
top of one another. It is the only one with this degree of top to 
bottom (not just peak) correspondence. The lower the sunspot peak the 
lesser the correspondence in shapes.

Then look at 11-17 vis-a-vis 17-23. 11, 17 and 23 look like zero 
crossings for a 132 year cycle between 11 and 23, with the 
negative-going part of the 132 year cycle (11-17) presenting low 
sunspot maxima and low geomagnetic correlation and the positive part 
(17-23) presenting high sunspot maxima and high geomagnetic 
correlation.

Bottom line, IMHO, the strong cycle proponents' proof graph reads like 
the weak cycle 24 predictions.

73, Guy.





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