Topband: 160 Meter Propagation

[Carl K9LA]

  Greg,

>Interesting site, but I see the neutrons were abt +1.5 on both 20th and 
>21st.  Prop was great on the 20th, but non-existent on the 21st.  Must 
>be another factor somewhere!
>
You make an important point about K5PC's comments.

When Bob NM7M and I co-authored the first article in the cosmic ray 
series (in the November 2008 issue of CQ - Bob subsequently wrote 
several more articles on this topic by himself), we had hoped that the 
decrease in cosmic ray count would give us a daily indicator of long 
distance propagation on 160m. But that was not to be. The log data 
showed many instances of what you cited - good days and bad days at the 
same decrease in cosmic ray count. In fact, a couple logs showed no 
relationship between cosmic ray count decrease and distance - those 
stations worked long distances regardless of cosmic ray count decrease 
(your log data to Europe from 2005 through early 2008 is one such example).

I believe the cosmic ray count decrease parameter should be used as a 
long term indicator of DXing - not as a sure-fire daily indicator. And I 
agree with your last sentence - there is at least one other variable 
(more than likely more than just one!) running around out there that we 
don't have a handle on yet.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.

Carl K9LA