Topband: 160m - better at solar max or solar min?

[N4IS]

Carl

 >>
Now we just went through the deepest solar min in our lifetimes - which also
means we were hit with more GCRs than ever in our recorded history (about
19% more than anything we've seen in the past 50 years). So it very well
could be that this solar min was too quiet geomagnetically speaking - and it
still is very quiet with Cycle 24 headed towards being an underachiever.
What this implies is more absorption than the last solar min.
 
I think if we understand the processes in the atmosphere, 160m will slowly
give up its secrets. This isn't going to happen overnight, as there's hardly
any research down at the altitudes that impact 160m propagation.
 
I've alwaysd believed that if science and observations are in agreement,
then we probably know what's going on. I see much science with respect to
antenna topics on this reflector - I hope this catches on for propagation,
too.
 <<

This was my first solar cycle in Florida  and I really increased my
dedication to 160m after 2006 with my Vertical WF and 2009 with the
Horizontal WF. There were 3 different events almost in sequence that I still
don't understand and I would like to ask for comment's because I think they
are related. 

After the propagation across the north pole 2007,  2008 (2 years event), In
Jan 2009, I started hearing strong DX signals on 80m during the afternoon,
Italian stations on 3800 4 hours before SS, and some strange condition into
South America, and Australia (VK6),  also way before SS. In Aug 2010 I was
hearing PY with 1W SSB and 200mW on CW 3 hours before my SS, also in 2010 I
noticed some long path SSW into South Asia. This exotic condition on 80m
reached it best in the summer of 2010 and just  stopped after that until
now.  It was another 2 years event , I no longer can hear 80m DX signals in
the afternoon since Aug 2010.

 Just after that in October 2010 we started to experience a strong
propagation long path into South Asia on 160m, (80m was stronger). XU7ACY
and 9M2AX was booming here every day for weeks. The LP SSE/SSW as open 50%
of the time from Oct to Mar. The same propagation happened Oct 2011 however
it started few days in Oct, 30% in Nov but in Dec over 60%, Dec 30 and 31st
2011 was the best day I ever experienced on 160m LP, XU7ACY was s7 for
almost one hour and Peter worked 23 station in the East Coast. I worked DU
9M2 KH2 BA2 and JA long path in 30 minutes. Again a 2 year event because
after Dec 31 the LP just shut down, not a single opening during 2012.

Looking into 2 years events, the polar propagation, the 80m in the afternoon
and the LP on 160m, I believe these events are related with the E layer
behavior during the raise of the solar cycle. 

The question I would like to ask is what can we expect next, now that we
seems to be heading for another very long and deep solar minimum. When the
long path propagation on 160m will be back, and when that weird propagation
on 80m will return?

I don't know if this 3 events happened on past cycles. I am active on 160
since 1972 from PY2 land living in a city lot with s9+20 of QRM, I  got my
first  DXCC on 160m only in 1992. I'm living in Florida since 1999.  I would
like to know if these condition were a unique observation for the cycle 24
or if  it happened before.


Regards
Jose Carlos
N4IS