Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE

[Bill Tippett]

From:  https://www.cq160.com/scores.htm

The 20 all time highest CQ160CW scores for USA::

Year    Instances (ranks)
2018:  1 (#9)
2017:  1 (#20)
2013:  1 (#18)
2011:  4 (#5, 8, 11, 15)
2010:  3 (#3, 6, 10)
2009:  10 (#1, 2, 4, 7, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17, 19)

2009 + 11 year cycle = 2020. However the great conditions of 2009 were
actually SLIGHTLY AFTER the cycle 24 minimum in December 2008.  If the new
minimum is as forecast in April 2020, it could be that the best conditions
will be slightly past that minimum (i.e. during the upcoming 2020-2021
season).  Time will tell.

73,  Bill  W4ZV


On Sun, Dec 15, 2019 at 12:00 AM Larry <pacer99 at aol.com> wrote:

> for what it's worth here are my scores from past years:
> 2007   247,000
> 2009   618,000
> 2010   752,000   (83 countries)
> 2011   600,000
> 2012   324,000
> 2013   367,000
> 2014   312,000
> 2015   319,000
> 2016   278,000
> 2017   372,000
> 2018   384,000
>
> certainly scores were dependent on conditions that weekend but no doubt
> 2010 was by far the best.
>
> European signals were constantly over S9 the entire season. so far this
> season no EU has gone over the S7 mark. (zero noise on the beverages)
>
> hope that it gets better soon. it has been a very bad winter.
>
> larry
> n7dd
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Bill Tippett <btippett at alum.mit.edu>
> To: Nicholas Hall-Patch <nhp at ieee.org>
> CC: topband <topband at contesting.com>
> Sent: Sun, 15 Dec 2019 3:28
> Subject: Re: Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE
>
> Could be that good conditions are just ahead but they better hurry up.  The
> 6 years of >100k scores in the last cycle versus none so far in this one
> seems to indicate something is very different about this cycle compared to
> the last one.  If this cycle is 11 years, we should have seen much better
> conditions beginning in 2016 (2005 + 11 = 2016).  2005 was actually the
> best year for CQWW results.  I remember it well and there has been nothing
> comparable so far (i.e. 2016-2019).  If I had time I would look at the CQWW
> multi-multi scores for 160 to see if they correlate with single band
> scores.  Maybe someone else will have a look and include at CQ160 scores as
> well.
>
> 73,  Bill  W4ZV
>
> On Sat, Dec 14, 2019 at 8:13 PM Nicholas Hall-Patch <nhp at ieee.org> wrote:
>
> > But doesn't the graph referenced in your link
> > https://spaceweather.com/repeat_images/crinfo2.png indicate that the
> > greatest strength from cosmic rays was 2009-2010, when trans polar
> > conditions were at their best, Bill?
> >
> > I'd defer to K9LA's comments in a heartbeat, but isn't the one (the
> > primary?) reason for greater penetration of cosmic rays  the weakening
> > geomagnetic activity  that occurs during solar minimum, and that's
> related
> > to the intensity and speed of the solar wind, driven by coronal mass
> > ejections and such like.  According to
> > https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression, we are only
> > now approaching the low levels of geomagnetic activity (Ap progression
> > chart) seen in 2009 / 2010.    Of course we may never reach those levels.
> > We have to wait and see.
> >
> > best wishes,
> >
> > Nick
> > VE7DXR
> >
> > On Sat, Dec 14, 2019 at 6:24 PM Bill Tippett <btippett at alum.mit.edu>
> > wrote:
> >
> >> This could account for relatively poor conditions on 160 despite the low
> >> SF
> >> and K indices:
> >>
> >> *COSMIC RAY UPDATE:* Something ironic is happening in Earth’s
> atmosphere.
> >> Solar activity is low–very low. Yet atmospheric radiation is heading in
> >> the
> >> opposite direction. Cosmic rays percolating through the air around us
> are
> >> at a 5 year high and only percentage points away from a Space Age
> record.
> >> Find out what's happening on today's edition of Spaceweather.com
> >> <
> >>
> https://spaceweather.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=0c5fce34d5ca05f64a13d085d&id=84e9b2ac89&e=b06d5db3f7
> >> >
> >> .
> >>
> >> 73,  Bill  W4ZV
> >> _________________
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> >
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