Topband: Mostly normal propagation is likely until CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday October 30th

[donovanf at erols.com]

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC 
web pages is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. 


Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal 
until likely CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday, then mostly 
below normal until at least mid-day Sunday. 

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely 
to be mostly normal until likely CME arrival early to mid-day 
Saturday, then below normal until at least mid-day Sunday. 

Moderate to strong solar flares may cause moderate to severe 
radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday. 

Click here for today ’s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. 

Click here for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions , updated regularly. 

We are in the geomagnetically active autumn equinox season 
through late October with about twice as many geomagnetically 
active days compared to December, January, June and July caused 
by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) more frequently 
persisting in a southward orientation (-Bz). 

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be at least 113 through Sunday. 
There are five active regions on the visible disk with 46 mostly small 
and a few moderate sized sunspots. 
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg 

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and 
the south Pacific is likely to be normal until likely CME arrival 
early to mid-day Saturday, then mostly below normal until at 
least mid-day Sunday. 


40 meter short path propagation to south Asia until about 0100Z 
is likely to be is likely to be mostly normal until likely CME 
arrival early to mid-day Saturday, then below normal until at least 
mid-day Sunday. 40 meter short path propagation from North 
America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be is likely 
to be normal until likely CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday, 
then below normal until at least mid-day Sunday 

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions 
is likely to be mostly normal until likely CME arrival early to 
mid-day Saturday, then below normal until at least mid-day Sunday. 
30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a 
few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long 
distance F2 propagation. 

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral 
ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal until likely 
CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday, then mostly below normal 
until at least mid-day Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation 
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be normal 
until likely CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday, then mostly 
below normal until at least mid-day Sunday. 

17, 15, 12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be 
mostly normal until likely CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday, 
then mostly below normal until at least mid-day Sunday. 

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal hole high speed stream 
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less 
frequent through at least late 2021. The southward oriented (-Bz) 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a 
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. 
Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually 
triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) 
with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours coincident with 
the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . 
More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms 
may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists 
in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength 
for several hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth 
directed fast CME. 

The solar wind is likely to be near background levels until likely 
CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday, then likely to increase 
to strong wind until at least mid-day Sunday 

The geomagnetic field is likely to be normal until probable strong 
CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday causing minor to strong 
geomagnetic storms until at least early Sunday. Earth directed 
coronal hole high speed stream effects are not likely through 
Sunday. 

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 56 minutes earlier and 
daylength is 90 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd. 
Daytime ionization and residual nighttime ionization in the 
far northern polar region is rapidly declining due to steadily 
increasing polar night effects. 

Click here for today ’s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily. 
Click here for today ’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. 
Click here for today 's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. 
Click here for today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. 

Click here for today 's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z daily. 

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: 
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net