Topband: Topband Conditions

[STEVE MCDONALD]

Indeed Frank, it’s a rather dismal topband outlook for the next few years but hopefully we will have a few surprises as well … I never forget about the ‘magic’ factor, the thing that keeps most of us so intrigued with propagation. 

 
73, Steve 
  
  
 
 
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-----Original Message-----

From: Frank <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: topband <topband at contesting.com>
Cc: Paul <pbc.law at outlook.com>; Steve <ve7sl at shaw.ca>
Date: Friday, 25 July 2025 1:43 PM PDT
Subject: Re: Topband: Topband Conditions

Hi Steve, 

We are indeed in the doldrums of Solar Cycle 25 from a Topband perspective. 

>From an HF perspective we're still enjoying many of the benefits of solar 
maximum. but that's likely to gradually come to its natural end by late 
next year. 

There's a very slight chance of a second Solar Cycle 25 peak but its 
extremely unlikely. Every double peaked cycle since Cycle 1 has reached 
the maximum of their second peak earlier in every solar cycle than where 
we are right now in Cycle 25. 

CMEs continue to occur frequently through about the 24th month after each 
solar maximum. CMEs will gradually occur less frequently after about 2027. 

Solar flares are almost always associated with -- but are not caused by -- CMEs. 
CMEs and hence solar flares will occur less frequently after about 2027. 

Geoeffective coronal holes begin to occur more frequently after solar maximum 
and continue to occur frequently for most of the declining phase of each solar 
cycle but gradually become less common as we approach solar minimum circa 2030. 
Coronal holes will become much less common when we begin to enter the rising 
phase of solar Cycle 26 circa 2031/2032 

73 
Frank 
W3LPL 







----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Steve" <ve7sl at shaw.ca> 
To: "Paul Christensen" <pbc.law at outlook.com> 
Cc: "topband" <topband at contesting.com> 
Sent: Friday, July 25, 2025 10:03:53 AM 
Subject: Re: Topband: Topband Conditions 

I agree Paul. I’ve never seen topband as poor as this, ever. 
  
It looks like Cycle 25 is on the downward slope, failing a second peak this fall. Double peaks are the norm it seems and if it happens, should make the 6m guys happy.  


Unfortunately, the downward slide produces more flares, CMEs and coronal holes than the climb up, all of which makes for continued terribleness on 160 … I hope I’m wrong but, either way the Sun goes, we may be in for a few more years of this. 
  
73, Steve 
  
  


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-----Original Message----- 

From: Paul <pbc.law at outlook.com> 
To: topband <topband at contesting.com> 
Date: Friday, 25 July 2025 8:16 AM PDT 
Subject: Topband: Topband Conditions 

Does anyone have an idea as to 160m DX conditions for the fall and winter? Conditions have been terrible for the last two DX seasons in North Florida. 

Each year, I deploy 100 radials for a "T" top in October, then take them up in April as the farmer who owns the land tedders the tall field grass into hay bales. Frankly, I'm loath to do it again this year if conditions remain the same. 

Paul, W9AC 

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