[Towertalk] The Ham Radio Business

[A9xw@cs.com]

With some 30 years experience in the biz of ham radio let me add 2 ents 
worth.  
1.  Ham radio has been dying for over 30 years.  Whether you believe Wayne 
Green is right blaming ARRL's incentive licensing or the internet or lack of 
promotion doesn't matter.  Nearly 90% of all ham stores are closed, over 90% 
of all ham manufacturers are out of business. 
2.  There is almost no interest in ham radio by anyone out side of the hobby 
anywhere in the world. There are a flood of new "no code"  G land hams 
similar to the flood of no-code hams here, but I predict that as here, most 
of them will not invest in more than a 2 meter HT and after a while lose 
interest as has happened here.  For all the new hams there is still not a 
crowding on HF and  less than a half dozen repeaters in Chicago have enough 
users to key it up to show life. in NYC there are nearly no repeater users 
except illegal unlicensed cab drivers using them for business speaking in 
arabic.  League membership as a percentage of licensed hams is at historic 
low.  
3. If you take into account the 10 year lag between license renewals and a 
percentage for SK's that arenot yet reported as such, most are never reported 
until the 2 year renewal grace period is passed,  you find that the "active" 
ham population is about 1/3 less than the stated "licensed" hams. 
4.  Stores including the big names are all reporting sales are down 30-50%.  
AES tells me that walk in trade is nearly non-existant because hams  shop the 
internet to get the lowest price or use the 800 numbers, and this has 
increased until 80% or more of all sales are phone or internet based. The few 
in store sales are "lookers" and tire kickers who buy little stuff but mostly 
buy the rigs via option 1-2.  One manufacturer tells me sales are off 60% 
from three years ago and 80% from 10 years ago. 
5.  There is little effort to get any substantial growth in either activity 
or new hams. the same old contests, sweepstakes, and OSCAR stuff has almost 
no interest to non hams and although I don't keep track of entries, I would 
like to know if the number of contest and award logs are going up or down. My 
guess is down.  
6.  In conversations with the FCC over the decades, their usual comment about 
ham radio growth is, "If we handed out Extra class ham licenses on the corner 
for free, no one would take them."  that is a direct quote from top FCC 
brass. there are many there that if it wern't for our emergency uses, would 
just as soon eliminate all ham radio and sell the spectrum to big commercial 
interests.  Thats all spectrum, not just a UHF or SHF band or two as they are 
doing now.  The "international goodwill"  is of no value with all the mideast 
wars, terrorism, etc.  If the bulk of hams were not over 60 and too old to do 
much more than sit and drink beer and fart on 40 meters, we could mount a 
good terrorism emergency plan that might be of interest to the non ham world 
and the Government, but I don't see anyone, let alone Newington leading the 
charge on that one either. just the ususal MARS, RACES and 2 meter HT 
repeaters.  We can forget finding much new technology since the size of stuff 
today is too small for us to even see without a microscope or large lens, 
unless you can come up with a new math algorithm  that makes some significant 
improvement in digital.  the lab boys are way beyond all but a handful of 
hams in that area. Redesigning old 1 tube receivers and transmitters for 
"third world" countries is a waste of time since the hams there have to be 
rich enough just to get a license and station, and aren't about to build 
jungle radios. Even the drug lords buy all new gear for their cleandestine 
operations, not home brew or flea market stuff.  
7.  If it weren't for the CB'ers buying ham gear to operate on 10, 11 and in 
between, at power levels to 25 KW,  most of the HF gear sales would be 90% 
lower also.  
8.  When those of us who are over 50 die, the ham population will be under 
125,000 and ARRL membership will be less than 15,000.  new hams do not join 
ARRL.  no code hams do not join ARRL.  they also do not buy magazine 
subscriptions, or expensive gear, usually a 1-2 band HT, a mobile antenna and 
an amp if the repeater is more than a few miles away. 

73

Henry AA9XW