[Towertalk] Models and real world --oops

[n4kg@juno.com]

WELL  SAID  Jim, except that a TWENTY  METER (Half Wave) Dipole
is closer to 33 ft long than 65 ft, which would work very nicely on 
FORTY Meters.  

Tom  N4KG

On Thu, 11 Jul 2002 12:52:55 -0400 "Jim White" <k4oj@tampabay.rr.com>
writes:
> sounds like I am back on the South (Non MIT side) of the Charles 
> River....
> 
> KNOWING that doing iterations over and over again on a model and 
> seeing the
> results tell you that this what you want without knowing that the 
> answer is
> a reasonable one is suicidal!  If you get an output from some 
> software that
> tells you a 20 meter dipole is to be cut 49 foot long and you do not 
> have the experimental experience to know this just ain't right you are 
> one of
> those that has become too dependent on your machine as do all know 
> all - and
> you are not as valuable as the guy who knows that he cuts a twenty 
> meter dipole 65 or some odd feet long since he done it at Field Day for

> years!
> 
> You put his blue collar knowledge together with computer savvy and 
> you get
> someone who knows when not to waste his time on a given set of
> iterations....if it ain't close to being right it is (here is the 
> key word) obviously wrong!
> 
> I am not poo poo ing the computer by any means believe me it is a 
> great
> tool - but as the early users found it is only as good as what you 
> put into
> it - it is not "all knowing" - we still need those AMATEUR radio 
> guys in
> times of emergency now don't we - amazing how they can "rough" it 
> and get
> damned close and with a little adjustment nail it - without even a
> calculator....
> 
> Experiment coupled with theoretical models is what is the best 
> combination -
> think that is why you must, for example, learn to draw with a 
> t-square or
> parallel arm and a pencil and eraser before you can truly KNOW what 
> you got
> in a CADD program!
> 
> Real world guys with two tone collars (white and blue) are the 
> heroes, they
> are the entrepreneurs and the legends in my book!
> 
> Can you believe what we hear from wall street - the people in 
> control, CEO's
> and Financial managers who say they didn't realize what was going on 
> - what
> were they looking at printouts without a column that said "this 
> can't be
> friggin' right" on it!
> 
> Bring on the mentors and the elmers!
> 
> 73,
> 
> Jim, K4OJ
> 
> 
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Michael Keane, K1MK" <k1mk@alum.mit.edu>
> To: <towertalk@contesting.com>
> Cc: <k4oj@tampabay.rr.com>; <n4zr@contesting.com>
> Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 11:49 AM
> Subject: Re: [Towertalk] Models and real world --oops
> 
> 
> > On Thu, 11 July 2002, "Jim White" wrote:
> >
> > > 8JI said
> > >
> > > "I am concerned an over-reliance on computer models that we 
> assume are
> > > "absolute" has collectively given us the impression that we can
> > > predict the real world, and we are as a group losing touch with
> > > understanding how to make valid comparisons between systems. "
> > >
> > > a ham has a signature line on his e-mail with the following 
> quote that
> > says
> > > it all
> > >
> > > "experience trumps theory. Dave Leeson, W6NL)
> > >
> > > AMEN!
> >
> > Dr. Leeson wrote "... EXPERIMENT always trumps theory."
> > http://lists.contesting.com/_towertalk/1997-March/003381.html
> >
> > There be a vast world of difference between experience and 
> experiment,
> > which is neatly summed up in Hume's rule: "Extraordinary claims 
> require
> > extraordinary proof."
> >
> > The methods we collectively employ for comparison seldom rise to 
> the
> > level of calibrated observations never mind controlled 
> experiments. Our
> > experiences typically provide neither the precision nor the 
> accuracy
> > necessary to invalidate the predictions of a individual models, 
> let
> > alone begin to constitute a basis for refuting the underlying 
> theory.
> >
> > Extremism in the advocacy of empiricism is no virtue; moderation 
> in the
> > defense of a theoretical understanding is no vice.
> >
> > 73,
> > Mike K1MK
> >
> > Michael Keane K1MK
> > k1mk@alum.mit.edu
> > ________________________________________________
> > PeoplePC:  It's for people. And it's just smart.
> > http://www.peoplepc.com
> 
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