jimjarvis at verizon.net
Sat Nov 12 17:52:07 EST 2005
Couple of things could be said for this chap's efforts.
First, it's a novel way to look for investment funds or
purchase, ignoring the substance of his offering.
Second, he looks like a lot of my consulting clients, with an
idea, but no sense of market sizing, opportunity, accounting, or
profitability. Fortunately, most of my clients are technically
competent...even brilliant, in their narrow way....and their
investors are no dummies either.
Thirdly, the patent will be challengeable by steppIR...if they
choose to pursue it. It's clear that the patent office won't
be able to identify prior art, and will rely upon the applicant's
Lotsa interesting lessons in this one.
As a business, it'd be worth 5x earnings...which are demonstrably
zero. As a competitive product, if he could really produce it for
40 bucks (which I doubt), he should sell it for around 200. With normal
expenses for sales/marketing/warranty & manufacturing, he'd show a 10%
profit, after tax. My guess is, when he amortizes the cost of the molded
housing over N units...CGS will be closer to $80, and sell price would
then need to be around 400. Frankly, I can't see 1% of the global licensed
amateurs feeling the need to be served by this product, at that price.
Perhaps .1%, with a tailwind.
Still....If I could sell it to you for $185, and another 45 for the rig
interface, would YOU buy one? THAT's the challenge.
I'd estimate first year sales at $100k, rising to $175k and 225k in
years. Might still be interesting, if it didn't turn into a pissing contest
Message to Mike Mertel: dipoles for the lowbands...you've got the prior
jimjarvis at ieee.org
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