[TowerTalk] copper wire prices

[Rob Atkinson, K5UJ]

Copper has been extremely high now for at least 6 months.   If you have not 
been out to buy strap or wire in awhile you'll be in for a shock.
The reasons are simple supply and demand.   There may be a demand for it in 
Iraq, but that has not been reported.  If it is true, it probably has little 
to do with U.S. forces being there because the rebuilding of Iraq will 
continue after they are out one way or another and Iraq will have the oil 
money to buy on the global market regardless of price.  On the other hand, 
China and India are consuming a tremendous amount putting a strain on 
existing inventory.  The industry has been slow to develop sources, partly 
because the demand wasn't foreseen, and partly because current mines are 
about tapped out and unexploited areas are in politically unstable regions.  
  For more, see the following post I sent to broadcasters 6 months ago (I 
thought I posted this to Towertalk but maybe not....)

There are problems with using aluminum--it has been tried before by 
broadcasters--I can't recall exactly what happened but I think it was either 
the Al got eaten up in the soil after a few years, or the 
corrosion/oxidation on the surface got so bad it became too resistant to RF 
current.   Copper works because cu oxide conducts okay.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Subject: [BC] copper demand and price soar
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2006 18:11:06 +0000


Synopsis taken from today's wall st. journal:

World's growing appetite for copper melds with supply concerns to keep 
prices above $2/ pound.  World's appetite for copper is growing quickly but 
mining companies don't have new resources to develop...

There's worry for everyone from mining companies to microwave oven 
makers...new lack of mother lodes to tap.  Around 10 years ago Chile emerged 
as the Saudi Arabia of copper.   The world was flooded with copper and 
prices dropped to less than $0.70/pound.   Today, demand from China and 
elsewhere has kept copper futures prices above $2 / pound even after a 
recent pullback.   Chilean production dropped 2% last year and new mines 
aren't being discovered quickly enough to make up the shortfall...the world 
now has unusually low levels of cu and profit margins are squeezed for such 
cu consumer companies as Belden CDT Inc., one of the largest U.S. makers of 
electronic cables.   Belden recently reported 4th qtr. net income fell 43% 
as it struggled with rising cu costs.   the shortage of new mining projects 
also extends to zinc and aluminum.

most of the untapped copper are in regions that have unstable governments or 
are hard to reach such as central Africa and Mongolia.  consumption of 
refined cu is growing 3.5%/year driven by demand in China, other parts of 
Asia and Europe.    In the past, Chilean production plugged the shortage gap 
with production there jumping to 5.5 metric tons/year from 1.5 MT in 1990, 
with Chile now producing 36% of the world's supply.  The world's 2nd largest 
cu mine is in Papua Indonesia producing 600K MT.   There are 2 big untapped 
prospects on the horizon:  Phelps Dodge is developing a mine in the 
Democratic Republic of the Congo.   A copper and gold deposit in Mongolia's 
Gobi region is being developed by Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., a venture founded by 
billionaire mining entrepreneur Robert Friedland.   If these projects reach 
fruition, production will be at least two years off.

+++++++
rob / k5uj

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