[TowerTalk] Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel Report

[Thomas Giella KN4LF]

On the website http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/PressRelease.html 
they said the following: "The first year after solar minimum, marking the 
end of Cycle 23, will provide the information scientists need to arrive at a 
consensus".


In science you cannot have a consensus. Something either is or isn't. The 
statement points to how politics has entered the world of Science whether it 
be forecasting a solar cycle or global warming.

My forecast for cycle 24 is for it to begin in June 2007 and peak at a 
smoothed SSN of 105 in 2012. Recently there have been a number of 
predictions calling for solar cycle 24 to be very large if not the largest 
since solar cycle 19. Not only do I think that those hyped forecasts are 
incorrect and have stated so on a number of propagation email reflectors, my 
forecast for cycle 24 is for it to be weaker than solar cycle 23. As a ham 
radio operator I hope I'm wrong but we won't know either way for a number of 
years.

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Lakeland, FL, USA
kn4lf at earthlink.net

KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
Harmful Man Induced Climate Change (Global Warming) Refuted: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/globalwarminglie.htm
New Scientific Evidence for the Existence of God: 
http://www.cosmicfingerprints.com/audio/newevidence.htm