[TowerTalk] TowerTalk Digest, Vol 161, Issue 100

Thu May 19 09:34:21 EDT 2016

Howdy --

    Nothing fatal but a little judicious editing will  prevent re-posting 
the whole danged digest. Tnx. 

Cheers,
Steve     K7LXC
TT ADMIN

In a message dated 5/18/2016 7:56:17 P.M. Pacific Daylight Time,  
towertalk-request at contesting.com writes:

From:  "Steve Oksala" <ni3p at comcast.net>
To:  <towertalk at contesting.com>
Subject: Re: [TowerTalk]  consensus
Message-ID:  <004e01d1b143$506eaa10$f14bfe30$@comcast.net>
Content-Type:  text/plain;    charset="us-ascii"

Slightly off subject ... I  don't know about the solar cycle, but I do know
that "consensus" means that  there is mostly (but not unanimous) agreement.
It says nothing about  whether it is right or wrong, only that most of the
people mentioned think  it is. So this use is OK. Unfortunately quantum
physics says we can't even  rely on a thing being definitely true or not 
....

Steve  Oksala
NI3P

-----Original Message-----
From: TowerTalk  [mailto:towertalk-bounces at contesting.com] On Behalf  Of
towertalk-request at contesting.com
Sent: Wednesday, May 18, 2016 12:00  PM
To: towertalk at contesting.com
Subject: TowerTalk Digest, Vol 161,  Issue 100

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Today's Topics:

1. Re:  Fwd: My question (Ed Sawyer)
2. Re: Solar Cycle 24 Prediction  Panel Report (Jerry Gardner)
3. FW:  Fwd: My question  (Matt)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Message:  1
Date: Tue, 17 May 2016 12:19:09 -0400
From: "Ed Sawyer"  <sawyered at earthlink.net>
To:  <towertalk at contesting.com>
Subject: Re: [TowerTalk] Fwd: My  question
Message-ID:  <002601d1b057$d886a0c0$8993e240$@earthlink.net>
Content-Type:  text/plain;    charset="us-ascii"

What method are people  using to model a tower connected directly to ground
with a yagi on  top?  Are you checking the tower physically for resonance 
and
using an  equivalent tuned element in the model or something else?

Ed   N1UR

------------------------------

Message: 2
Date:  Tue, 17 May 2016 16:30:24 -0700
From: Jerry Gardner  <jerryw6uv at gmail.com>
To: Tower Talk  <towertalk at contesting.com>
Subject: Re: [TowerTalk] Solar Cycle 24  Prediction Panel Report
Message-ID:
<CABi7XyocS2C18s_F-rRANgiJFe5nbm8gp6DYkn6LjDdsbNubGw at mail.gmail.com>
Content-Type:  text/plain; charset=UTF-8

>On the website  
>http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/PressRelease.html
>they  said the following: "The first year after solar minimum, marking 
>the  end of Cycle 23, will provide the information scientists need to  
>arrive at
a
>consensus".
>
>
>In science  you cannot have a consensus. Something either is or isn't. 
>The  statement points to how politics has entered the world of Science  
>whether
it
>be forecasting a solar cycle or global  warming.
>
>My forecast for cycle 24 is for it to begin in June  2007 and peak at a 
>smoothed SSN of 105 in 2012. Recently there have  been a number of 
>predictions calling for solar cycle 24 to be very  large if not the 
>largest since solar cycle 19. Not only do I think  that those hyped 
>forecasts are incorrect and have stated so on a  number of propagation 
>email reflectors,
my
>forecast for  cycle 24 is for it to be weaker than solar cycle 23. As a 
>ham radio  operator I hope I'm wrong but we won't know either way for a  
>number
of
>years.
>
>73,
>Thomas F. Giella,  KN4LF
>Lakeland, FL, USA
>kn4lf at earthlink.net

I came  across this old post from April 2007 in the archives and thought it
might  be interesting to compare Thomas' predictions from 9 years ago to  
what
actually happened.

Thomas predicted cycle 24 would start in  June 2007, the actual start was in
January 2008 -- not bad-- off by only 6  months.

He predicted a peak in 2012 -- the dual peaks occurred in 2011  and 2014.

He predicted the peak to reach a smoothed SSN of 105 -- the  actual peaks
were 99 for the first peak and 101 for the second. Not bad at  all. In fact,
he nearly nailed  it.

73,
Jerry

------------------------------

Message:  3
Date: Tue, 17 May 2016 21:40:34 -0500
From: "Matt"  <maflukey at gmail.com>
To: <towertalk at contesting.com>
Subject:  [TowerTalk] FW:  Fwd: My question
Message-ID:  <007601d1b0ae$a7912380$f6b36a80$@gmail.com>
Content-Type:  text/plain;    charset="us-ascii"

Hi Ed,

I have used 3  x face width as circumference and modeled using equivalent
round element,  then modeled the antennas on top at actual dimensions  and
height.   Don't know if that's a valid estimation, but it  seems to get into
the ballpark.

Hope this helps.   Good  luck on your modeling.

Matt
KM5VI

-----Original  Message-----
From: TowerTalk [mailto:towertalk-bounces at contesting.com] On  Behalf Of Ed
Sawyer
Sent: Tuesday, May 17, 2016 11:19 AM
To:  towertalk at contesting.com
Subject: Re: [TowerTalk] Fwd: My  question

What method are people using to model a tower connected  directly to ground
with a yagi on top?  Are you checking the tower  physically for resonance 
and
using an equivalent tuned element in the model  or something else?

Ed   N1UR

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End  of TowerTalk Digest, Vol 161, Issue  100
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