[UK-CONTEST] RSGB 144mhz contest & C class

[Dave Sergeant]

On 2 Aug 2010 at 15:24, Dave H wrote:

> Anyone think the C class flare will hit Earth in time to make the 144MHz
> UKAC interesting tommorrow night? I got home too late to catch the DX on
> last weeks 50MHz contest so would like to have this for the contest -
> even if it means losing HF for a while after.
> 

A C3.2 flare is a relatively minor one, just like Earthquake 
maginitudes it is a logarithmic scale - not until you get to the higher 
M class or X class do you need to start worrying. There is a slight 
possibility of minor geomagnetic disturbance within the next 48 hours 
but nothing exceptional. For anything to happen on 2m you would be 
talking about a BIG aurora, and I suspect that is MOST unlikely.

Spaceweather.com is run by a chap at NASA but I am not sure that it is 
a NASA site. It does tend to over hype things. Most of the official 
work on spaceweather is done by NOAA, not NASA. A far more balanced 
view of things can be found on the excellent sites 
http://prop.hfradio.org/ and excellent http://www.solarcycle24.com/ You 
will see there that the possibility of major storms in the next 48 
hours is only 1%.

The propagation on 6m last week would have been sporadic E - which has 
virtually NOTHING to do with anything the sun has been doing, which 
continues to be VERY quiet despite the odd sunspot. Problem is that 
some people get all excited whenever the slightest thing happens there!

73 Dave G3YMC

http://www.davesergeant.com