[VHFcontesting] No Data+only annecdotal speculation=wrong solution

[Ev Tupis (W2EV)]

Tom Carney wrote:
> I took a look at the number of QSOs by the top stations during the 1997-2002
> June contest.  It seems like the number of QSO these stations made would
> give some indication of actiivity in their area.  Here is the total for the
> top seven QSO leaders on 2M for each of the years.
> 
>   97-3873, 98-3560, 99-3964, 00-3632, 01-3311, 02-3924
> 
> While I don't see any obvious trend in this data, a simple average of the
> first three years is 3799 vs the average for the last three 3622.
> 
> I will do the 6M one and post the results next.

Tom,
Nice work.  What I see is (with one exception) a series of higher-highs and
higher-lows.  The overall trend is up, given this data set...though there is a
hint of a turn-aound at the end.

HOWEVER...this is only 6-events worth of data.  The quesiton is if this is
cyclical (short-term) or secular (long-term).

There is much to know about how to properly define data sets and analyze what
they show.  There's a reason that statistical analysts can make a living doing
it.

The point is still this: Too many assumptions are being made and conclusions are
being drawn based on annecdotal "evidence".

Ev, W2EV