[VHFcontesting] Preliminary - Rover Activity in the January 2010Contest

[Eugene Zimmerman]

Thanks for the data Duffey.

The maximum number of logs during this period 1992-2010 was 1219 in 1996. I
would therefore like to add an extra column % Total Log compared to the
maximum year 1996. The table now reads

Year	All	% Max 1996	Total Rover	% Rover	CR LR UR


2010	759	62	73	9.6	47  24  2
2009	649	53	58	8.9	41  12  5
2008	709	58	61	8.6	36  24  1   Rover Categories Added
2007	778	64	68	8.7	68
2006	793	65	67	8.4	67
2005	712	58	53	7.4	53
2004	834	68	93	11.2	93
2003	798	65	82	10.3	82
2002	802	66	72	9	72
2001	790	65	86	10.9	66
2000	820	67	48	5.9	48
1999	966	79	76	7.9	76
1998	1075	88	74	6.9	74
1997	1182	97	78	6.6	78	
1996	1219	100	80	6.6	80	    Rover Scoring Changed
1995	1171	96	71	6.1	71	    Rover Scoring Changed
1994	1013	83	86	8.5	66	
1993	1036	85	106	10.2	106	
1992	958	77	79	8.2	79	    First Rover Class

Rather than comparing 2010 with 2009 I think we can see trends much better
if we look at the whole period since the rover class began,

For rovers the % of rover logs compared to total logs has been remarkably
constant through a number of rules changes. When the total number of logs
increases the number of rover logs increases more or less by the same
amount.  In any case the % of rover logs has shown no clear trend since the
class was initiated in 1992. As you correctly point out January rover
activity is weather dependent but it subtends less than a 2:1 ratio never
dropping below 5.9% or exceed 11.2% of total logs. 

I think Duffey is spot on with the reasons why the unlimited rover is
languishing while the other classes are doing well.

Of more interest to me is the added column which shows the percentage of
total logs compared to the maximum number which occurred in 1996. Here the
total logs have declined significantly since 2000. Contrast this with the
activity in HF contests. The numbers I know are for the CQWW which had 6000
logs in 1996 and 10000 in 2009 the last year for which figures are
available. I'm sure the same is true for the ARRL DX and ARRL HF SS - Sean
Kutzko would know. During the past 12 years the amount of VHF ready radios
has increased enormously. Whereas the small do-everything radios did not
increase VHF activity much there is reason to believe that the new high-end
HF/6 meter radios like the K3 and all the ICOMs are beginning to make a
difference. In any case VHF contest activity is diminished in the last 13
years whereas HF contest activity has increased substantially. 

Many on this reflector know why I think that has happened. On HF you can
have a lot of fun and turn in a score you won't be ashamed of with a pretty
limited station. That isn't so in any of the ARRL VHF contests. If you don't
provide some means for competitors to compete you won't get any logs.

73 Gene W3ZZ

-----Original Message-----
From: James Duffey [mailto:jamesduffey at comcast.net] 
Sent: Saturday, February 27, 2010 11:19 AM
To: VHF Contesting Reflector
Cc: James Duffey
Subject: [VHFcontesting] Preliminary - Rover Activity in the January
2010Contest


With 73 entrants, rover activity was high during the January 2010 contest.
Both Classic Rover entries and Limited Rover entries grew from 2008. The
Unlimited Rover Class continues to languish, with just 2 entries. Overall
participation in the contest grew significantly from 649 entries in 2009 to
759 entries in 2010 and rover entries grew from 58 in 2009.

Here is the historical January contest participation data with 2010
preliminary data added:   

Table - Rover Activity in the ARRL January VHF Sweepstakes since 1992

Year	All	Rover	%Rover	CR  LR  UR  Notes
2010	759	73	9.6	47  24  2	
2009	649	58	8.9	41  12  5	
2008	709	61	8.6	36  24  1   Rover Categories Added
2007	778	68	8.7	68			
2006	793	67	8.4	67			
2005	712	53	7.4	53			
2004	834	93	11.2	93			
2003	798	82	10.3	82			
2002	802	72	9.0	72			
2001	790	86	10.9	66			
2000	820	48	5.9	48			
1999	966	76	7.9	76			
1998	1075	74	6.9	74			
1997	1182	78	6.6	78			
1996	1219	80	6.6	80	    Rover Scoring Changed
1995	1171	71	6.1	71	    Rover Scoring Changed
1994	1013	86	8.5	66			
1993	1036	106	10.2	106			
1992	958	79	8.2	79	    First Rover Class
CR - Classic Rover
LR - Limited Rover
UR - Unlimited Rover

The 2010 data is based on the logs received page from the ARRL web site. It
does not include paper entries, so the total may grow by 5% or so and
perhaps another rover or two. Still it is good enough to show positive
trends.

Activity in the January Contest, particularly for rovers, is very dependent
on the weather, which explains many of the wide swings sees in the
historical participation data. In some cases it is impossible to rove due to
road conditions, and cold temperatures can make it difficult to get out and
work antennas. This year the weather was OK over much of the US, and good
for the high VHF activity areas in the midwest and east. The southwest had
record rain everywhere and snow at the higher elevations in the days leading
up to the contest, but the weather for the contest weekend was fairly mild.
See my soapbox for pictures of the KK6MC/r rover covered in snow the day
before the contest, and another with it surrounded by saguaro cactus in
sunlight a day later. AF6O has similar photos of his rover. KR0VER/R got out
in Colorado, as did N0LP/R, for the first rover entries in a January contest
from that state in many years. No longer will rovers from NM own the January
contest in the Rocky Mountain Division. Of particular interest is the 420
mile 2M SSB QSO from K7ULS, on Powder Mountain in UT to KR0VER/r in Eastern
Colorado! And anyone who complains about the cold affecting roving contests
should read NL7HJ/r's soapbox comments.

The classic rover entries grew a bit, which is good, as I said in the
September analysis there is concern that the limited class will siphon off
Classic Rover entrants and that is clearly not the case here. The limited
Rover class doubled in size over last year, but remains constant from 2008.
The class is getting traction, attracting newcomers, or inactive rovers who
don't want to go to the bother of outfitting a full up 10 band rover. 

The Unlimited Rover Class has not attracted a significant number of
participants since it was formed, and it certainly has not been used by
entrants as it was envisioned. The entrants who have used it, have used it
to good advantage though. The lack of entrants in the Unlimited class has
been pretty universal across all the VHF/UHF contests from the introduction
of the class. 

The California rover pack was out with 11 well equipped rover stations and
contributed to an impressive score for the Southern California Contest Club
in the Club competition. The pack used a slightly different strategy, with
some of the rovers splitting off from the pack so that not all of the rovers
were in the same grid at the same time.

There was some Es from AZ and southern CA to the northwest and rovers took
advantage of that to get a few more multipliers than usual. There was little
in the way of other openings; little tropo and no aurora. 

The Spring Sprints are coming up and it is not too early to start planning
your rove. Although these are short contests, with planning and a favorable
location a Rover can get to two, three, or even four grids in an evening. -
Duffey


--
KK6MC
James Duffey
Cedar Crest NM