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Re: [Amps] economics 3501

To: "Amps Amps" <>
Subject: Re: [Amps] economics 3501
From: "Roger" <>
Date: Sat, 28 Jul 2007 14:11:34 -0400
List-post: <>
Interesting but:

> Brace yourself for grad school economics theory lesson 3501.

You forgot inflation!

> Why doesn't Command and QRO get together?

Small, one or two man businesses have little to gain by merging with the 
> It's no longer 1980 where the hobby was growing from converted CBers at
> almost doubling rates per year.


> There is almost NO ROOM financially in the market to develop new ham
> products.  Companies that have been in business for years are folding or
> being bought up by one or two individuals and turned into conglomerations 
> of
> products (Like MFJ).
> Where it almost makes no sense to have a company employing 10 people to
> produce four $2500.00 amplifiers a week.  Paying wages, building and all
> other expenses.  It makes sense to have 250 products under one roof and
> build as the market requires.

Only if there is a market for those 250 products AND each is profitable 
unless some of the maller items go as "loss leaders" which wouldn't make 
much sense in this market.
> Another place where price theory falls apart is in an economy of shortage.
> Here the last produced unit controls 100% of the market.  GAS is one of
> those products.  Demand nearly outstrips the supply, running on the ragged
> edge of shortage.  The price hovering around $3.20 a gallon.  Pure genius.

And not far off from where inflation alone would put it.

> For instance, want a big amp?  Give me a $10,000 and I'll make one. Yawn,
> but I'm not in the mood to build one today sorry.  Oh you'll give me
> $20,000? Ok well, I think I'm in the mood next Tuesday...  $30,000 here 
> let
> me get outta bed and we can talk a little more about that amp.

Custom built is expensive in all markets.

> I predict all 1500 Watt class ham amps will be in the $5000 price range
> within 5 years.  In ten there will be us homebuilders and the $25K 
> market...
> That's when I will be producing amps if I'm not already dead.

Well, that's a good *current* example.   Take the original Henry amps. With 
inflation applied they would now be selling for over $5000.  Take Collins 
S-line back in the 60's, it would be close to the prices of those top of the 
line Icoms and Yaesus which do more, and work better.  My original TS820 and 
my Hallicrafter's SX117 and HT44 would be over $4,000, or $5,000 and my mid 
60's HT33B would be very close to $5,500

I happen to have an old Alpha 76A, Henry 2K4, and Henry 2002A. When 
purchased new in today's dollars, they all make that new solid state KW I 
just purchased look like a bargain.  I generally purchase used, but there 
have been a few exceptions.

So you don't have to apply any esoteric theory to come up with those big 
prices, inflation does it quite nicely all on it's own.  The other stuff 
just adds on.

But looking the other way, Given the top-of-the -line Ameritron, Tokyo 
Hy-power, Expert-1K FA, amps, when compaird to previous generations of amps 
they are truely bargains. So too are the Icom, Yaesu, and Kenwood 
tranceivers with the exception of their top-of-the-line tranceivers at 
$10,000 to $13,000 dollars and those are not all that out of line compared 
to top end 60's equipment.  OTOH look at the FT897D or the new Icom 7000 
which are unbelieveable bargains when looked at in 1960's dollars.

However, going back to the original post about reasons for spending the 
extra for todays top end amps compared to those running a bit less power for 
about half the money:  Do hams purchase these for a few hundred extra watts 
whether legal or not, or do they just want the extra "head room" or reserve?

Even when running at "tilt" although past the legal limit there isn't enough 
power between the legal limit and what they can do to really make a 
difference and I doubt even the FCC would notice unless they were 
overdriving to the point of causing their neighbors to complain. IOW there 
is little to nothing to gain by running the big ones at tilt but running at 
the legal limit does add a bit of margin with the heavier duty components.

As to that $500 8877:  In the 70's I was paying $305 with discount. If I use 
1977 as the year that would be $1,081 in todays dollars. IOW today's $500 
8877 would have been $141 in 1977 dollars.

As to gas, $3.20 figures out to be 58 cents a gallon in 1970
Oh! Our first color television, wayyyy back when, was a giant 21" that in 
today's dollars cost well more than a 60" plasma. As a bonus, one person can 
lift the 60" while that old 21" was a major effort for two. <:-))

For those that want to compare dollar value versus year there is a 
calculator at that lets you put in 
the dollar value, starting year, and ending year. It will then caluclate the 
dollar value based on the inflation value based on the inflation values for 
the years in between. (It does require Java to be enabled)

In the end, today's prices, including gas, aren't near as bad as people seem 
to think.


Roger (K8RI)

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