Mike,
Thanks for your analysis. Though reasonable minds may differ, I think we
want to encourage, not discourage, reasonable guesswork. After all, these
aren't the SATs. While these are contests, they are about communication.
We want to encourage weak stations to get on the air and join in. When I'm
at P49Y and it's very tough to make out weak EUs on, say, 40 SSB, I want to
try as best I can to move the pileup along and not have to wave off all the
weak ones until the occasional S9 signal can be logged. I want to encourage
a guy with an indoor dipole to make a call (and, reprising an earlier
thread, if he sends me a QSL and it looks like I mistook the call, I'll
send him a card anyway).
In your scenario, I would think a 1 QSO penalty would be appropriate.
Then the expected value of the QSO would be exactly zero, so you would be
encouraged to guess if you think you have better than a 50% chance of
getting the call correct, but not when you simply had no idea which one you
heard.
73, andy, ae6y
----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Tope" <W4EF@dellroy.com>
To: <K3BU@aol.com>; <cq-contest@contesting.com>
Sent: Monday, May 16, 2005 1:08 PM
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] QSO Penalties
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <K3BU@aol.com>
>
> >>>Also, obviously nobody on this list has anywhere near the antennas and
> > receivers and neurological filters that Yuri does if he can't understand
> > the
> > idea of guessing. I guess he's NEVER had to sit and listen while EVERY
> > time
> > the call is sent some QSB or QRM obliterates part of the call.<<
> >
> > Thank you for compliment to my 160m Inv Vee and roof vertical....
> > Looks like it has not hit me that I could do some guessing. Like I got
> > part
> > of W7AB? call, now I will guess: was it A or which of the rest of 25
> > characters? To be safe I will put all combinations in the log W7ABA
> > through W7ABZ and
> > will hit the good one somewhere. Is that how it works? I must have
> > overlooked
> > this "trick" when call gets obliterated. Gimme a break! If you guessed
it
> > wrong,
> > you will lose it, period.
>
> How about a less extreme example, Yuri. You comeback to very weak
> W4 who is calling you on CW. You ask for several repeats and you think
> it is W4EU, but your are still not sure even after the repeats. His signal
> has
> faded to nothing. This is taking time and your rate is dropping. Was it
W4EU
> or could it have been W4EF who was calling K3BU? With no penalty, there
> is no downside to leaving the W4EU guess in the log and moving on to the
> next QSO. If you leave a 50/50 guess in the log, you will on average earn
a
> 0.5 QSOs/guess after logchecking. With a 3 QSO penalty the downside risk
> of guessing wrong is much higher, so your are probably better off to wave
> the
> QSO by sending "SRI W4EU? NIL 73 CQ Test K3BU" and then move on.
> In the 3 QSO penalty scenario with 50/50 guesses you will earn an average
> of -1 QSOs/guess [+1 x 0.5 + (-3)*0.5 = -1.0]. With a 3 QSO penalty you
> need to be > 75% sure that you have the call correct to come out ahead
> (+1*0.75 + (-3)*0.25 = 0.0] (on average of course). Not that any of us
> can exactly measure our numerical confidence level on marginal QSOs,
> but I think everyone has some intuitive sense of uncertainty in these
> situations
> (e.g. I am pretty darn sure that was W4EU versus it sounded like W4EU,
> but he kept fading at the end so it could have just as easily been W4EF).
>
> Of course, there are the downsides you mention. If somebody doesn't like
> you and they are less than honorable, they can cause you a whole lot of
> grief by purposefully dropping you from their log or working you with
bogus
> callsigns. I would hope that people are above that (even with their most
> hated rivals), but stranger things have happened.
>
> 73 de Mike, W4EF...................................
>
>
> > 73 and have a great Dayton!
> >
> > Yuri, K3BU.us
> > _______________________________________________
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> > CQ-Contest@contesting.com
> > http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/cq-contest
> >
>
>
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