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Re: [CQ-Contest] Contesting 10 years from now (2007)

To: Sterling Coffey <kawfey@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] Contesting 10 years from now (2007)
From: "rjairam@gmail.com" <rjairam@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2018 15:02:52 +0000
List-post: <mailto:cq-contest@contesting.com>
“Are there any Tech only or Tech-oriented CW sprints/contests, besides the
rookie roundup? “

Field day.

As for the CW concern, that’s largely a function of elmering. This is my
problem with some of the recent proposals - there is the expectation by
some that we will grant more privileges and things will just automatically
get better. Not saying more privileges is a bad thing, just it needs to be
done smart with the mentoring component added. Otherwise it won’t do a
thing.

That’s why I say - field day. We need more field day types of events even
if just indoors.

Ria
N2RJ
On Tue, Mar 27, 2018 at 10:22 AM Sterling Coffey <kawfey@gmail.com> wrote:

> We don't hear more of them on because there are a number of barriers to
> entry that tech's aren't generally willing to hurdle at that point in their
> experience with the hobby.
>
>
>    1. CW *is* hard; to get up to contest speeds is a big ask for a lot of
>    people, only the most hams most interested in CW and disciplined to learn
>    it get to that level of confidence before operating - a tiny fraction of
>    techs
>    2. Tech callsigns are long and op skills are lower, which causes
>    varying levels of consternation in everyone involved, leading to a brutal
>    or even rejected QSO (which puts a bad taste in the mouth of both the tech
>    and the other op, especially for high strung contests)
>    3. After all, we hams generally don't do such a good job advertising
>    it or elmering techs and rookies. Anecdotally, I know of only two hams who
>    contested as a tech did it all by their self, with their own gear and
>    self-taught code. One of them was me, and the other was a college friend.
>
> This was my experience anyway, as KD0BZE nearly 10 years ago. (woah, it's
> time to renew!)
> Are there any Tech only or Tech-oriented CW sprints/contests, besides the
> rookie roundup?
>
> On Mon, Mar 26, 2018 at 4:41 PM, rjairam@gmail.com <rjairam@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> “Technicians will get active contesting on their new bands, to the
>> chagrin of many established operators.”
>>
>> Techs already have a ticket to the biggest contests today on 40, 80, 15
>> and 10 meters. Why don’t we hear more of them on? Even if you say “CW Is
>> hard” I hear tons of South American ops on 10 meters phone every contest.
>> It may not be open to Europe or Asia but it’s definitely open to central
>> and South America and the caribbean.
>>
>> Bear in mind as well that the current ARRL proposal has very contest
>> unfriendly segments and no privileges on the most popular contest band - 20
>> meters. Unless of course you think they will eventually get access to more
>> favorable segments.
>>
>> Ria
>> N2RJ
>>
>> On Mon, Mar 26, 2018 at 5:34 PM Sterling Coffey <kawfey@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> Younger generation chiming in with...contests are going to get a lot
>>> less active :(
>>>
>>> There is a huge contingent of young ops in Region 1 (mostly thanks to
>>> YOTA) but on the other sides of the world, youth contesters are a little
>>> less organized. That has hopefully changed with the creation of Young
>>> Amateurs Radio Club <https://yarc.world/>, the Collegiate Initiative
>>> <http://www.facebook.com/groups/ARRLCARI>, and some push to bring a
>>> YOTA-like organization to IARU regions 2 and 3.
>>>
>>> All of that pales in comparison to the age of current contesters. I
>>> posit it's slightly lower than the average, but Sweepstakes reports don't
>>> lie (although club calls obscure the actual operator's license year, which
>>> for W0EEE was 1923 whilst everyone who operated was licensed for less than
>>> 5 years.
>>>
>>> Here's my thoughts for ham radio contesting in 10 years:
>>>
>>>
>>>    1. Drops in total logs submitted will invoke new categories for
>>>    youth (and not just Rookie) will spring up, just like the college
>>>    sub-competition during NAQP and Sweepstakes.
>>>    2. New AI category
>>>    3. New "Knobs" category
>>>    4. Technicians will get active contesting on their new bands, to the
>>>    chagrin of many established operators.
>>>    5. SSB & CW will be a mainstay but digi contests will begin to
>>>    outshine "classic" modes
>>>    6. WSJT will flesh out the DXpedition mode into a fully fledged
>>>    contest mode, which will allow multiple QSOs per contact
>>>    7. Remotes will become ubiquitous and I suspect it'll be put into
>>>    it's own category.
>>>    8. More livestreaming. I'd love to see a Ham Radio category on
>>>    Twitch.tv!
>>>    9. contest score reporting will be adopted by a majority; no need to
>>>    upload logs as it's being uploaded in realtime on a qso-by-qso basis
>>>    10. Additionally, logs are instantaneously and irrefutably
>>>    cross-checked for authenticity using signed blockchain technology on the
>>>    ethereum (or similar) network (HamRadioCoin is a thing already!
>>>    <https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/hamradiocoin/>)
>>>    11. Bigdata/Neural networking intertwined with real time conditions
>>>    will tell ops which band, mode, and beam azimuth and elevation pattern to
>>>    operate for maximum rate
>>>    12. There will be no need to ask QRL? Your radio determines the best
>>>    TX frequency in the band and decodes everything in the band 
>>> simultaneously
>>>    (so there's also no need to reply to a CQ at the same frequency)
>>>    1. Expanding on that, there will be AI contests solely dedicated to
>>>       automatic QSOs (still requiring some semblance of operator 
>>> intervention to
>>>       meet regulations) running at rates pushing 1200QSO/hr
>>>       13. Radio equipment continues their push towards SDR and
>>>    miniaturization
>>>    14. New inductor technology shrinks the size and cost of linear
>>>    amplifiers and power supplies
>>>    15. But an elecraft K3, FT-*000, TS-990, Flex 6*00 etc...will still
>>>    sell for the same price as they are today.
>>>
>>> Sterling, N0SSC
>>>
>>>
>>> On Mon, Mar 26, 2018 at 11:10 AM, rjairam@gmail.com <rjairam@gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> My take on 10 years from now:
>>>>
>>>> A lot of the old guard will sadly be SK, with not a lot of replacement
>>>> from younger generation, unless we do something.
>>>>
>>>> Top 3 US for the majors will almost exclusively be remote operation.
>>>> The only problem is who will be driving.
>>>>
>>>> Assisted and non-assisted will be combined for some majors. Sad to see
>>>> it go, but I am getting used to the idea.
>>>>
>>>> CW contest entries will remain stable while SSB and digital may see a
>>>> modest boost.
>>>>
>>>> Digital (HF) contests will include weak signal (WSJT) modes.
>>>>
>>>> VHF contests will be nearly all weak signal (WSJT) modes on 6 meters.
>>>> It's pretty much that way now.
>>>>
>>>> HOAs - the South and Southwest US will continue to have tons of HOA
>>>> issues. As the US East Coast slows in population growth and new
>>>> housing starts, that's where there will be fewer restrictions. But
>>>> that comes with two caveats - winter and cost of living, unless you do
>>>> remote operation.
>>>>
>>>> Hams will still like knobbed radios although the market for SDRs is
>>>> growing.
>>>>
>>>> 73
>>>> Ria
>>>> N2RJ
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Sun, Mar 25, 2018 at 5:32 PM, Mark <markzl3ab@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>> > I was looking for something else and stumbled across this on the
>>>> interweb.
>>>> >
>>>> > I hope ES5TV doesn't mind me posting the link.  It sure make
>>>> interesting
>>>> > reading now.
>>>> >
>>>> > http://www.lhv.ee/images/files/2017.pdf
>>>> >
>>>> > Any bets on the next ten years?
>>>> >
>>>> > 73
>>>> > Mark ZL3AB
>>>> > _______________________________________________
>>>> > CQ-Contest mailing list
>>>> > CQ-Contest@contesting.com
>>>> > http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/cq-contest
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>>>
>>>
>
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