[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A long duration event C1.1
flare occurred at 22/0757.  SXI showed the primary contributions to
the event from regions on the east and west limb.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Isolated active periods
were observed at mid latitudes between 0600 to 0900 UTC, and high
latitudes between 0300 to 0900 UTC.  Solar wind speed has declined
from 600 km/s to 500 km/s during this reporting period.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  On 25 November, there is a
possibility of active periods due to the effects of a coronal hole
high speed stream.

III.  Event Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Nov 106
Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov  110/115/115
90 Day Mean        22 Nov 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  009/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  004/008-004/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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