[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels due a single C-class flare from Region 2318 (N09E63, Cao/beta) at 04/1155 UTC. The region also produced a few B-class flares. Slight decay was observed in Region 2317 (N11W67, Cao/beta). New Regions 2319 (S11E12, Bxo/beta) and 2320 (S12E48, Cao/beta) were numbered during the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in limited coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares for the forecast period (04-06 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 152 pfu observed at 03/2305 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast to be at normal to moderate levels for day one (04 Apr) with a chance of reaching high levels on days two and three (05-06 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued under the influence of a trans-equatorial positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds remained steady at about 550 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-7 nT while the Bz component ranged from +6 nT to -5 nT. Phi angle remained oriented in a predominately positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced through day one (04 Apr) and slowly diminish through days two and three (05-06 Apr) as CH HSS effects wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Apr) as CH HSS effects persist. A decrease to quiet to quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two and three (05-06 Apr) as the CH HSS effects wane.

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