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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 05 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a long duration C3/1f hyderflare observed at 05/0007 UTC. This event was associated with a 23 degree long filament eruption centered near S29E28. The filament was observed in SDO/AIA 193/304 and GONG imagery lifting off beginning at 04/2225 UTC and was no longer visible by about 04/2330 UTC. The eruption appeared to propagate along the filament channel from the southeast to northwest and was accompanied by coronal dimmings.
Associated with this eruption was a Type II radio emission at 04/2319 UTC with an estimated shock velocity of 933 km/s. LASCO coronagraph imagery observed a fast-moving CME off the SE limb, first visible at 04/2336 UTC in C2 and 05/0006 UTC in C3 with estimated plane-of-sky speeds of 758 km/s and 770 km/s, respectively. Analysis and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output suggests the main body of the CME will pass to the south and east of Earth, but a glancing blow from the shock front is expected to impact Earth mid to late on 07 April.
Slight growth was observed in Regions 2318 (N10E47, Dao/beta) while Region 2320 (S12E34, Dao/beta) exhibited moderate growth. Region 2319 (S11E12, Bxo/beta) decayed slightly. Region 2317 (N11W79, Cao/beta) continued to decay as it approached the NW limb.
Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares for the forecast period (05-07 Apr).
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 281 pfu observed at 04/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance of reaching high levels on days two and three (06-07 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued under the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed ranged from 477 km/s to 606 km/s with the total field between 3 nT and 6 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -4 nT and +5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately positive (away) sector with negative (towards) incursions from 04/2000-2230 UTC and again from 05/0930-1030 UTC.
Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly diminish through days one and two (05-06 Apr). A return to near nominal levels is expected by day three (07 Apr). Mid to late on the 7th, an increase in density and wind speeds are expected as glancing blow effects from the shock front associated with the 04/05 April CME are felt at the ACE satellite.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for a majority of the forecast period (05-07 Apr) as CH HSS effects diminish. However mid to late on 07 April, field conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to active levels as glancing blow effects from the 04/05 April CME impact Earth.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Apr 05 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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