[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Apr 06 16:10 UTC

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Apr 06 0133 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 March - 05 April 2015

Solar activity was at low levels throughout the period. Region 2303 (N19, L=066, class/area=Hkx/400 on 17 Mar) produced low to mid-level C-class activity early in the period while Regions 2318 (N10, L=199, class/area=Dao/199 on 05 Apr) and 2320 (S12, L=212, class/area=Dai/140 on 05 Apr) each produced only low-level C-class flare activity throughout the remainder of the period.

A filament eruption centered near S29E28 was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery between 04/2225-2330 UTC. A long-duration C3/1f hyderflare was measured during this event and had an associated Type-II radio emission. The subsequent fast-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 04/2336 UTC. WSA-ENLIL model output suggests a glancing blow arrival of this CME late on 07 April.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 30 Mar and normal to moderate levels on 31 Mar-05 Apr.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 02-04 Apr with an isolated period of active conditions observed between 2100-2359 UTC on 02 Apr due to the effects of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 30 Mar-01 Apr, and 05 Apr under a mostly nominal solar wind environment.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 April - 02 May 2015

Solar activity is expected to be low (below NOAA Scale event thresholds) with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flare activity throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 22-24 Apr and 02 May, moderate levels on 06-08, 11-14, 17, 20-21 Apr, and 27 Apr-01 May, and at normal levels for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 15-16, 18-19, and 25-27 Apr due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Active conditions are expected on 07-09 Apr due to the anticipated arrival of the 04/05 Apr CME. Active conditions are expected on 17, 20 Apr, and 28 Apr-01 May due to coronal hole high speed stream effects with generally quiet to unsettled levels likely for the remainder of the period.

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