[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2320 (S12E22, Dai/beta-gamma), the largest and most complex spot group on the disk, produced a C3 flare at 05/2103 UTC. The region exhibited overall growth and displayed mixed magnetic polarities within its intermediate spots. Region 2318 (N09E34, Cai/beta) produced a C1 flare at 06/0550 UTC.

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the period. Additional analysis and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output suggests that the 04/05 Apr CME will pass well south and east of Earth with no impacts expected.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares for the forecast period (06-08 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 298 pfu observed at 05/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (06-08 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be elevated under the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speeds ranged from 490 km/s to 606 km/s through 06/0100 UTC when a drop off in speeds to near 475 km/s was observed. Total field ranged from 1 nT to 6 nT while the Bz component was variable between +5 nT to -3 nT. Phi angle remained oriented in a predominately positive (away) orientation.

Forecast: Nominal solar wind conditions are expected for the next three days (06-08 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (06-08 Apr).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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