[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. In addition to flare/CME from 5 April, a second event was observed from near Region 2320 (S12E22, Dai/Beta-gamma) just after 07/0200 UTC. Analysis was completed on the event once LASCO imagery became available. Both transients were loaded into an ENLIL run - suggesting a partial blow possible on 9-10 April.

Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to remain low with a slight chance for a M-class flare over the next three days (7-9 April). Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (07-09 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft remained benign. Wind speed slowly decreased from near 500 km/s to end near 400 km/s. Phi was variable, but positive on average. Bt was at or below 5 nT and Bz was never below -4 nT.

Forecast: Some influence from an equatorial positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream is anticipated at ACE on 09 Apr, with a slight potential for transient passage on the 10th.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (07-08 Apr), increasing to unsettled to active levels on day three (09 Apr) in response to a high speed solar wind stream.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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