[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest region on the disk, Region 2320 (S12E09, Dai/Beta-Delta) showed some growth in its trailer spots, but decreased in overall areal coverage. It produced the largest flare of the period, a C1/Sf at 08/0007 UTC. No new Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to remain low with a slight chance for an M-class flare over the next three days (8-10 April).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels throughout the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (08-10 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft remained at an ambient nominal state. Wind speed steadily decreased from near 440 km/s to end near 345 km/s, Phi remained mostly positive, Bt was at or below 5 nT while Bz was mostly positive and never dropped below -3 nT.

Forecast: Nominal features are expected for day one (8 Apr). WSA-Enlil model output suggests the CME that occurred yesterday from Region 2320, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 06/1936 UTC, will arrive mid to late on day two (09 Apr). These effects will be combined with the influence from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and persist through day three (10 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 08 Apr. Activity is expected to increase to minor storm (G1) levels mid-to-late on 09 Apr as the CME described above arrives at Earth. Unsettled to active levels are likely to linger 10 Apr, with a chance for minor storm periods, particularly at high latitudes.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation