[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels during the period. The largest region on the disk, Region 2320 (S12W06, Eai/Beta-Gamma) showed some decay, and produced the largest flare of the period, an M1/1b at 08/1443 UTC with a smaller C5/N1 flare occurred at 09/0635. No new Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to remain low with a slight chance for an M-class flare over the next three days (9-11 April).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased to low levels throughout the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at low to moderate levels for the forecast period (09-11 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft displayed a weak transient signature. Wind speed increased from near 350 km/s to end near 390 km/s, Phi remained mostly positive, Bt increased to a peak of 11 nT while Bz oscillated between positive and negative.

Forecast: WSA-Enlil model output suggests the CME that occurred yesterday from Region 2320, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 06/1936 UTC, will arrive mid to late on day one (09 Apr). These effects will be combined with the influence from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and persist into day two (10 Apr). Nominal conditions are expected to return on day three (11 Apr) as effects from the above mentioned CME and CH HSS wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Minor storm (G1-minor) levels are likely mid-to-late on day one (09 Apr) through early on day two (10 Apr) due to effects from the CME described above. Unsettled to active levels are likely on day three (11 Apr), as CME and CH HSS effects wane.

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