[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was moderate. The largest region on the disk, Region 2320 (S13W33, Dai/beta-delta), produced several C class flares, the largest of which was a C7/1N at 10/0803 UTC. Region 2320 showed further signs of decay, particularly in its leader portion, but still maintained a complex magnetic configuration. Some brightening was observed on the east limb. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable. No other coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed during the period.

The CME observed at 09/2312 UTC off the west limb was slow-moving with little ejecta evident behind the shock. Further analysis suggests this event will have little to no impact at Earth.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare over the next three days (10-12 April).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 221 pfu at 09/1815 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (10-12 Apr) with a chance to reach high levels by 12 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft displayed an additional enhancement of solar wind speed and field at 10/0000 UTC. Wind speed increased from near 380 km/s to peak values near 460 km/s. IMF total field values increased to a peak of 20 nT while the Bz component remained predominantly northward to 19 nT. The Phi angle was predominantly positive (away) before 09/2200 UTC then transitioned to a negative (towards) sector until 10/0930 UTC before returning to positive again.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters will continue to be enhanced due to effects from the 06 Apr CME through day one (10 Apr) in combination with weak coronal hole high speed stream effects (CH HSS). Nominal conditions are expected to return late on day two (11 Apr) and persist through day three (12 Apr) as effects from the above mentioned CME/CH HSS wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm (G2-Moderate) levels with isolated high latitude severe storm periods.

Forecast: Minor storm (G1-minor) levels are expected for the remainder of day one (10 Apr) due to effects from the CME/CH HSS described above. Unsettled to active levels are likely on days two and three (11-12 Apr) as CME/CH HSS effects wane.

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