[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 17 1230 UTC.

Solar activity was at low levels during the period. Region 2321 (N11W01, Ekc/beta) was the largest region on the disk. The biggest flare was a C3 from Region 2325 (N04E39, Cso/beta). All other regions on the disk were mostly stable and quiet. A disappearing filament was observed on the south east limb after 17/0000 UTC. LASCO imagery does not show any obvious signatures from the event. There were no Earth directed CMEs detected on available LASCO imagery.

Forecast: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or greater) over the next three days (17-19 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to high levels for the forecast period (17-19 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at or near background conditions (Below S1 Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters at the ACE spacecraft began the period in the negative polarity southern pole connected coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind has maintained speeds of 600 km/s to 750 km/s. Phi has been mostly negative (towards). Total field oscillated between 10 nT and 4 nT through the period, trending downward as the period progressed. The Bz component has been mostly negative and reached as low as -9 nT.

Forecast: Day one (17 Apr) is expected to see disturbances in wind speed and field conditions from the effects of the recurrent southern pole connected CH HSS. Conditions on days two and three (18-19 Apr) should see wind speeds slowly decrease as the CH becomes less geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm (G2 - Moderate) conditions.

Forecast: Minor storm (G1 - Minor) conditions are likely on day one (17 Apr) due to the CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are anticipated on days two and three (18-19 Apr) as effects from the high speed stream slowly wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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