[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels during the period. Region 2321 (N12E9, Ekc/beta-gamma) was the largest group on the disk. It produced the largest flare of the period, a C7/2N at 15/2023 UTC. Region 2322 (N14W19, Bxo/beta), Region 2324 (N18E39, Dko/beta), and Region 2325 (N05E48, Cso/beta) were mostly stable and quiet. There were no Earth directed CMEs detected on available LASCO imagery.

Forecast: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3 Strong or greater) over the next three days (16-18 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (16-18 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at or near background conditions (Below S1 Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters at the ACE spacecraft began the period in the negative polarity southern pole connected coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind has maintained speeds of 550 km/s to 650 km/s. Phi has been mostly negative (towards). Total field around 15/1200UTC was 11 nT and oscillated between 11 nT and 5 nT through the period. The Bz component has been mostly negative and reached as low as -12 nT.

Forecast: Day one (16 Apr) is expected to see disturbances in wind speed and field conditions from the effects of the recurrent southern pole connected CH HSS. Conditions on days two and three (17-18 Apr) should see wind speeds slowly decrease as the CH HSS moves further west.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm (G1 Minor) conditions.

Forecast: Minor storm (G1 Minor) conditions are expected on day one (16 Apr) due to the CH HSS. Peak activity is expected to be unsettled to active conditions on days two and three (17-18 Apr) as effects from the high speed stream wane.

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