[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels during the period. Region 2321 (N14E23, Fkc/beta-gamma) was the largest group on the disk but produced no significant flares. Statistical history of this spot classification does not reflect current levels of activity. Region 2321 may better be represented as a closely clustered area of separate regions. SDO/AIA 171 imagery shows connectivity that seems to lend support to this view. As the region further develops and rotates towards center disk, additional analysis will be conducted to determine the most appropriate classification for the region.

The CME off of the east limb near 14/1500 UTC was directed away from the earth. The CME off the west limb near 14/1100 UTC was on the far side and does not appear to present a threat to earth.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3 Strong or greater) over the next three days (15-17 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (15-17 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at or near background conditions (Below S1 Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters at the ACE spacecraft began the period in an enhanced state. Total field increased to a peak of 17 nT and Bz saw a mostly southward component in the later portion of the period. Phi has been mostly negative (towards) during the period with around a seven hour stretch of positive (away) orientation from approximately 14/2000 UTC to 15/0300 UTC. Velocity saw a pronounced increase around 15/0300 UTC from 350km/s to near 450km/s by the end of the period. By the end of the period, density began to drop as wind speeds continued to rise. This signature suggests the transition of the co-rotating interaction region into the high speed stream of the anticipated south polar connected coronal hole.

Forecast: Days one and two (15-16 Apr) are expected to see disturbances in wind speed and field conditions due to effects of the recurrent southern pole connected coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Conditions are forecast to be nominal on day three (17 Apr) as the high speed stream fades. Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions (G1 Minor).

Forecast: Minor storm (G1 Minor) conditions are expected on day one (15 Apr) and likely on day two (16 Apr) as the southern pole connected negative CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day three (17 Apr) as the high speed stream fades.

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